Chronicles · Klaus Dormann
Klaus Dormann has chronicled the Russian economy for decades — from his years as an analyst at Ruhrgas and E.ON to today's sanctions economy. His weekly chronicles track industry, trade and finance with unmatched historical depth.
Russia
Reports are mounting about preparations for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. What impact would a ceasefire have on the Russian economy?
Russia
The VEB Institute estimates that overall economic output stagnated at a low level (0.0%) in the third quarter.
Russia
Since late September, the Russian government has also been factoring in economic growth of just 1 percent for 2025 in its budget planning.
Russia
On October 24, the central bank nevertheless lowered its high key interest rate by only 0.5 percentage points to 16.5 percent.
Russia
It no longer expects Russia to achieve real GDP growth of between 1.0% and 2.0% in 2025.
Russia
Hedlund uses the following map to illustrate Ukraine's role in transporting Russian natural gas to Europe.
Russia
However, Russia’s overall economic output in 2025 has so far grown only compared to the previous year.
Russia
It now expects economic growth of just +1.0 percent for the current year, 2025 (previously +2.5 percent).
Russia
The Russian government now expects economic growth of just 1.0% this year. In 2026, it will be barely higher.
Russia
In its forecast, the Institute of Economic Forecasting projects that Russia’s economy will grow by only 1.2 percent in 2025.
Russia
Despite the stagnating Russian economy, the central bank cut its key interest rate by only one percentage point, to 17 percent.
Russia
Sberbank CEO German Gref expressed skepticism about the growth prospects of the Russian economy at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.
Russia
“According to our preliminary estimate, GDP contracted by 0.6 percent in the second quarter, after adjusting for seasonal and calendar factors,” says VEB Chief Analyst Andreij Klepatsch.
Russia
Economic growth in Russia is likely to be modest this year. Are sanctions a major factor in this?
Russia
Analysts surveyed by Interfax in early August expect GDP to grow by an average of 1.4 percent for 2025 as a whole and by 1.7 percent for 2026.