How big is Russia's planned budget deficit in 2026?

The 2026 budget law plans a deficit of 3.786 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of GDP, with revenues of ₽40.3trn against expenditures of ₽44.1trn. Actual execution ran well behind plan in early 2026: the Jan–Apr deficit already reached ₽5.9trn (2.5% of GDP) as oil & gas revenues fell 38% year-on-year. Sources: Russian Ministry of Finance, Interfax.

What oil price does the Russian budget assume for 2026?

The budget is built on an average Urals price of $59 per barrel and an exchange rate of 92 rubles per US dollar. The budget-rule baseline price was lowered from $60 to $59; oil & gas revenues above the baseline would flow to the National Welfare Fund.

How sensitive is the Russian budget to the oil price?

In this first-order model, one dollar on the Urals price is worth roughly ₽150bn in annual oil & gas revenues at the budget exchange rate, and one ruble of depreciation against the dollar roughly ₽100bn. What matters fiscally is the ruble price of oil: the plan requires about 5,400 ₽/bbl.

Russia Budget Calculator 2026

What do the oil price and the ruble rate do to Russia's federal budget? Set both below. The model starts from the 2026 budget law (signed 28 November 2025): revenues ₽40.3trn — of which oil & gas ₽8.9trn — expenditures ₽44.1trn, planned deficit ₽3.8trn at an assumed Urals price of $59 and 92 ₽/US-Dollar. Live market context: Brent $71.2 (01 Jul), USD/RUB 78.3 (Bank of Russia). More Russia data in the Russia Terminal.

Inputs

Urals oil price, $/bbl 59

$30$100

Exchange rate, RUB per USD 92

60130

Result

Oil & gas revenues

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plan: ₽8.9trn

Total revenues

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plan: ₽40.3trn

Budget balance

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Deficit, % of GDP

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plan: −1.6%

Gap vs plan

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extra financing needed

NWF liquid buffer

—

₽2.9–3.8trn available end-2025

+$1 Urals ≈ — bn ₽ revenue per year

+1 ₽ per USD ≈ — bn ₽ revenue per year

Break-even ruble oil price ≈ — ₽/bbl for plan deficit

Method & sources

Model: oil & gas revenues scale linearly with the ruble price of oil — OG(P, FX) = ₽8.919trn × (P × FX) ÷ (59 × 92). Non-oil revenues are held at the plan value of ₽31.365trn, expenditures at ₽44.1trn, GDP at the ₽235.7trn implied by the budget's own ratios (revenues 17.1% of GDP). This is a first-order approximation: it ignores the non-linear mineral extraction tax and damper mechanism, assumes constant export volumes, and takes the government's optimistic non-oil revenue plan (which includes the VAT increase to 22%) at face value — in Jan–Apr 2026 actual oil & gas revenues ran 38% below the prior year and the deficit had already reached ₽5.9trn (2.5% of GDP), above the full-year plan. "Market now" preset approximates Urals as Brent minus a $12/bbl discount; the actual discount varies with sanctions enforcement. Sources: Russian Ministry of Finance (2026 budget law figures, monthly execution reports), OSW budget analysis (Dec 2025), Interfax (execution data), Bank of Russia (exchange rate), ICE (Brent). Not investment advice; the model illustrates orders of magnitude, not a forecast.