Chronicles · Klaus Dormann
Klaus Dormann has chronicled the Russian economy for decades — from his years as an analyst at Ruhrgas and E.ON to today's sanctions economy. His weekly chronicles track industry, trade and finance with unmatched historical depth.
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On Friday, the Russian Central Bank cut its key interest rate again by 0.5 percentage points to 15.0 percent.
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New forecasts show that higher energy prices have not yet been enough to significantly boost Russia's economy.
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A weak start to the year for Russia: Industrial production, GDP, and consumer spending fell short of expectations in January 2026.
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The outlook for Russia's economy continues to deteriorate. Consensus estimates for 2026 are now well below one percent.
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Russia's economy saw a surprising uptick at the end of 2025. But analysts warn that the growth spurt is unlikely to continue into 2026.
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Interest rate cut despite rising inflation: Russia's central bank is easing its monetary policy and expects moderate growth in 2026.
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After strong performance in previous years, Russia's economy is losing momentum significantly. Analysts expect only weak growth in 2026 as well.
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BOFIT Analysis of the Russian Economy: Why War-Driven Growth Is Coming to an End and Sanctions Are Increasingly Taking Effect.
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International organizations are lowering their expectations for Russia's economy. Growth will remain near stagnation in 2025 and 2026.
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High interest rates, sanctions, and low oil prices are weighing on Russia's economy. The World Bank and the UN expect only minimal growth in 2025.
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In December 2025, the year-over-year price increase was expected to be just under 6 percent (December 2024: +9.5%).
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However, overall economic output did not rise by 2.5 percent, as the government had originally planned.
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The budget calls for a nominal increase in government spending of about 4% for the coming year.
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While the Berlin-based DIW forecast a 1.5 percent increase in Russia’s GDP, the Munich-based ifo Institute predicted that the Russian economy would grow by only 0.4 percent in 2025.
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On December 2, President Putin further revised downward this growth forecast at VTB Bank’s “Russia Calling!” economic forum.