Caucasus Economic Terminal

Name: Caucasus Economic Terminal
Creator: Eastern Economy

Auto-updated from primary sources · 01 Jul 2026, 22:50 CET

Russia Central Europe Central Asia Caucasus

Georgia key rate 8.25%, CPI 3.2% · Azerbaijan key rate 6.50%, CPI 4.5% · Armenia key rate 6.50%, CPI 3.0% — from 9 primary sources. Below: cross-country matrix, productive sectors at PPP (Sapir view), 24-month trends, structural signals incl. food-spending shares and quick answers.

BRENT$71.23-2.3% GAS TTF€43.15-0.7% GOLD$4,049+0.7% WHEAT¢601+3.5% COPPER$6.16-0.5% EUR/USD1.1383-0.1% USD/GEL2.64-1.0% USD/AZN1.700.0% USD/AMD368.05 BRENT$71.23-2.3% GAS TTF€43.15-0.7% GOLD$4,049+0.7% WHEAT¢601+3.5% COPPER$6.16-0.5% EUR/USD1.1383-0.1% USD/GEL2.64-1.0% USD/AZN1.700.0% USD/AMD368.05

Key indicators latest available · period shown per value

Country	FX / USD	FX Δ1Y	CPI YoY	Key rate	Real rate	GDP 2025	GDP 2026f	GDP 2027f	Unemp.	C/A %GDP 2026f	Debt %GDP 2026f
Georgia	2.643GEL	-2.9%	3.2%2026e	8.25%17 Jun	+5.0%	+7.5%	+5.0%	+5.0%	13.9%2026	-4.7%	35.3%
Azerbaijan	1.700AZN	0.0%	4.5%2026e	6.50%01 Jul	+2.0%	+1.4%	+2.5%	+2.4%	5.3%2026	+4.1%	22.2%
Armenia	368.05AMD	—	3.0%2026e	6.50%16 Jun	+3.5%	+7.2%	+4.5%	+4.5%	14.0%2026	-4.8%	56.2%

FX Δ1Y: change vs USD over ~12 months, + = currency weakened. CPI marked e = IMF WEO annual-average forecast, shown where monthly national data lags more than 4 months. Real rate = policy rate − CPI YoY. GDP 2026f/2027f: IMF World Economic Outlook forecast. C/A = current account balance. Turkmenistan: manat officially pegged at 3.50/USD since 2015; use official data with caution.

Compare & context

Armenia vs Azerbaijan Armenia vs Georgia Azerbaijan vs Georgia Azerbaijan vs Kazakhstan Georgia vs Russia All comparisons → Business Wire · Live

Productive sectors · Sapir view agriculture + industry incl. construction, valued at PPP

Country	Agri %	Industry %	of which Mfg %	Productive share	GDP PPP $bn	Productive GDP PPP $bn
Germany ref 2024	0.9	25.6	18.0	26.5%	6,143	1,630
France ref 2024	1.3	17.2	9.6	18.5%	4,288	794
United Kingdom ref 2024	0.6	17.1	8.0	17.7%	4,293	761
Azerbaijan 2024	5.6	42.5	5.5	48.0%	256	123
Georgia 2024	5.5	19.6	8.4	25.1%	105	26
Armenia 2024	7.8	22.9	10.2	30.7%	69	21

Method: following Jacques Sapir's argument that services-heavy nominal GDP understates the weight of economies with large goods-producing sectors, this table values the productive base (agriculture + industry incl. construction, share of GDP) at purchasing power parity. Germany, France and the UK shown for reference. Source: World Bank WDI, latest available year per country. Sector shares are value-added shares of GDP.

Trends

CPI: IMF monthly database (national statistical offices). FX: official central-bank rates, indexed to 100 one year ago — rising line = weaker currency vs USD. Real rate = policy rate minus latest CPI YoY.

Beneath the surface structural signals

Country	Food % of spend	Price level idx	Remittances %GDP	Credit %GDP	Trade %GDP	Pop. growth
Georgia	23.4%2017	36	11.9%	68%	101%	+3.18%
Azerbaijan	33.3%2021	30	1.8%	25%	80%	+0.43%
Armenia	40.5%2021	42	4.9%	71%	102%	+1.74%

Food % of spend: household spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages as share of consumption — the classic Engel signal, poorer economies spend more (Germany: ~12%). Sources: Eurostat national accounts (EU members), World Bank ICP 2021 benchmark (others). Price level index = nominal GDP ÷ PPP GDP × 100 (US = ~100). Low values signal an undervalued price level — the gap Sapir's PPP argument exploits. Remittance shares above 10% signal external dependence on labor migration. Source: World Bank WDI, latest year.

Latest Caucasus analysis

Quick answers live values, auto-updated

What is Georgia's key interest rate?

8.25% — official policy rate, as of 17 Jun. Source: National Bank of Georgia.

How high is inflation in Georgia?

3.2% expected annual average 2026 (IMF WEO forecast).

How much of their spending do people in Georgia put toward food?

23.4% of household consumption goes to food and non-alcoholic beverages (2017, World Bank ICP 2021). Germany for comparison: about 12%.

What is Azerbaijan's key interest rate?

6.50% — official policy rate, as of 01 Jul. Source: Central Bank of Azerbaijan.

How high is inflation in Azerbaijan?

4.5% expected annual average 2026 (IMF WEO forecast).

How much of their spending do people in Azerbaijan put toward food?

33.3% of household consumption goes to food and non-alcoholic beverages (2021, World Bank ICP 2021). Germany for comparison: about 12%.

What is Armenia's key interest rate?

6.50% — official policy rate, as of 16 Jun. Source: Central Bank of Armenia.

How high is inflation in Armenia?

3.0% expected annual average 2026 (IMF WEO forecast).

How much of their spending do people in Armenia put toward food?

40.5% of household consumption goes to food and non-alcoholic beverages (2021, World Bank ICP 2021). Germany for comparison: about 12%.

Sources & update cycle

Central Bank of Armenia · Central Bank of Azerbaijan · European Central Bank · ICE/NYMEX/CBOT via Yahoo Finance · IMF CPI database (national statistics) · IMF World Economic Outlook · National Bank of Georgia · World Bank ICP 2021 · World Bank WDI. Exchange rates, market and commodity data update hourly; policy rates daily; CPI, industrial production and unemployment monthly on release; GDP, sector and structural data with World Bank/IMF revisions. Values marked CHECK have not been confirmed by the source in over 60 days. Compiled by Eastern Economy — no investment advice.