Chronicles · Klaus Dormann
Klaus Dormann has chronicled the Russian economy for decades — from his years as an analyst at Ruhrgas and E.ON to today's sanctions economy. His weekly chronicles track industry, trade and finance with unmatched historical depth.
Russia
Energy prices are rising, but according to new forecasts, Russia’s economy is growing only moderately. An overview from Germany and Finland.
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Is Russia really benefiting from rising energy prices? New forecasts show that the impact on growth remains surprisingly weak.
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On Friday, the Russian Central Bank cut its key interest rate again by 0.5 percentage points to 15.0 percent.
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New forecasts show that higher energy prices have not yet been enough to significantly boost Russia's economy.
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A weak start to the year for Russia: Industrial production, GDP, and consumer spending fell short of expectations in January 2026.
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The outlook for Russia's economy continues to deteriorate. Consensus estimates for 2026 are now well below one percent.
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Russia's economy saw a surprising uptick at the end of 2025. But analysts warn that the growth spurt is unlikely to continue into 2026.
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Interest rate cut despite rising inflation: Russia's central bank is easing its monetary policy and expects moderate growth in 2026.
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After strong performance in previous years, Russia's economy is losing momentum significantly. Analysts expect only weak growth in 2026 as well.
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BOFIT Analysis of the Russian Economy: Why War-Driven Growth Is Coming to an End and Sanctions Are Increasingly Taking Effect.
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International organizations are lowering their expectations for Russia's economy. Growth will remain near stagnation in 2025 and 2026.
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High interest rates, sanctions, and low oil prices are weighing on Russia's economy. The World Bank and the UN expect only minimal growth in 2025.
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In December 2025, the year-over-year price increase was expected to be just under 6 percent (December 2024: +9.5%).
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However, overall economic output did not rise by 2.5 percent, as the government had originally planned.
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The budget calls for a nominal increase in government spending of about 4% for the coming year.