It now expects economic growth of just +1.0 percent for the current year, 2025 (previously +2.5 percent).

The Russian government now expects economic growth of just 1.0% this year. In 2026, it will be barely higher.

In its forecast, the Institute of Economic Forecasting projects that Russia’s economy will grow by only 1.2 percent in 2025.

Despite the stagnating Russian economy, the central bank cut its key interest rate by only one percentage point, to 17 percent.

Sberbank CEO German Gref expressed skepticism about the growth prospects of the Russian economy at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.

“According to our preliminary estimate, GDP contracted by 0.6 percent in the second quarter, after adjusting for seasonal and calendar factors,” says VEB Chief Analyst Andreij Klepatsch.

Economic growth in Russia is likely to be modest this year. Are sanctions a major factor in this?

Analysts surveyed by Interfax in early August expect GDP to grow by an average of 1.4 percent for 2025 as a whole and by 1.7 percent for 2026.

The Russian Central Bank forecasts that the "overheated" economy will return to "balanced growth."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Russian economy to grow by only 0.9% in 2025.

The Russian Central Bank cites the slowdown in inflation as the main reason for cutting the key interest rate.

The Russian Central Bank estimates that the economy grew in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

Andrey Klepach, chief economist at Vnesheconombank, commented on the current economic trends in Russia in several interviews.

Surveys of Russian companies indicated a decline in economic activity.

According to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, industrial production in May returned to its previous peak, which was reached in December 2024.