Rising food costs are dampening the appetite

The market size of the Russian restaurant industry grew by 21% last year compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 4.3 trillion rubles, or 46.5 billion euros. However, this strong growth should not obscure the industry’s difficulties: the restaurant sector is currently undergoing a market shakeout. Many Russian restaurants are being forced to close their doors due to rising food and operating costs. And those who want to stay in business are passing on higher costs to customers.

Revenue Boils Over

According to the Russian market research firm Businesstat, the restaurant industry has more than doubled in size since the pandemic year of 2021. At that time, the industry generated 1.93 trillion rubles in revenue, or 20.8 billion euros. Between 2021 and 2025, it thus grew by an average of 22% per year. At the same time, restaurant owners point to shrinking margins: the profitability of restaurants has declined from 20–25% to 10–12% in recent years.

Analysts attribute the industry’s continued strong growth to rising consumer spending. Restaurant owners are passing on the increasing costs of ingredients, rent, equipment, and employee wages to their customers. The VAT increase from 20% to 22% this year is also likely to have a growing impact.

The bill, please

According to data from the financial services firm SberAnalitika, part of Russia’s largest financial institution, Sberbank, Russian restaurant-goers spent 12% more from January to November 2025 than in the same period the previous year, while the number of visitors rose by only 2%. The average cost amounted to 537 rubles, or 5.80 euros. Fast-food restaurants saw the highest revenue, accounting for 60% of total sales; the average bill at fast-food restaurants was 415 rubles (4.60 euros). Cafés and restaurants accounted for 34% of revenue; in these establishments, guests paid an average of 1,150 rubles, approximately 12.40 euros. Bars accounted for 6% of revenue, with an average bill of 820 rubles, or about 8.90 euros.

Statistically speaking, one-fifth of all restaurant-goers in Russia live in Moscow, one in ten in St. Petersburg, and one in fifteen in the Moscow region. Muscovites pay the highest average restaurant bill: 2,000 rubles, or 21.60 euros. Following behind are St. Petersburg (1,720 rubles, equivalent to 18.60 euros), the Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk (1,400 rubles, approx. 15 euros), the Primorye region on the Pacific Ocean (1,355 rubles, 14.60 euros), and the Republic of Tatarstan (1,295 rubles, 14 euros).

German restaurants are the most expensive

Last October, the Russian mapping service 2GIS analyzed Russians’ culinary preferences over the course of the year. The data was sourced from the number of times restaurants were viewed in the 2GIS map app. Russian cuisine took first place with 24%. Close behind is Georgian cuisine with 20%, followed by Italian and Japanese cuisine with 16% and 10%, respectively. Chinese cuisine ranks fifth (6.5%). The remaining shares are accounted for by Uzbek (6.3%), Korean (4.2%), Vietnamese (2.7%), Armenian (2.6%), German (2.4%), and other cuisines at less than one percent.

In terms of average check, German restaurants were the most expensive last fall at 1,567 rubles, 20 euros, followed by Italian (1,553 rubles, 16.80 euros) and Georgian (approx. 1,300 rubles, 14 euros). The most affordable were Vietnamese (around 600 rubles, 6.50 euros) and Uzbek dishes (620 rubles, 6.70 euros).

Wave of closures sweeps through restaurants

According to calculations by the mapping service Yandex Karti, Russia had a total of 115,000 restaurants in November 2025, a 3.1% decline from the same period the previous year. The Russian analytics service Kontur.Focus provides even more dramatic figures: According to its data, 35,400 restaurants across Russia shut down in 2025. This included 27,800 restaurants, 6,250 cafés, and 1,900 bars. The Moscow restaurant scene is also losing its appetite: In January 2026 alone, 45 restaurants in the capital were forced to close.

The wave of closures has now also spread to large fast-food chains. Since late 2025, one of Russia’s largest fast-food chains, Rostic’s, has shut down 25 of its locations. The company took over the Russian operations of U.S. fast-food giant KFC in 2022. Schokoladniza, the market leader among Russian coffeehouses, closed 20 locations last month, while the sushi chain Yakitoria closed eight restaurants.

Ready-made meals are competing

Nevertheless, many people still crave culinary experiences and do not want to give up dining out. After all, there are two types of guests: some have something to celebrate and are occasional diners, while others stop by regularly to eat, says Sergei Mironov, ombudsman for the Moscow restaurant market. It is precisely these regulars, who have been the main clientele of the restaurant industry for years, who are now being lost to ready-made meal outlets, the expert continues.

According to him, there used to be a clear division: restaurants served guests with meals, and stores supplied customers with groceries. Now everything is mixed up, and supermarkets are increasingly functioning as cafés—which, of course, significantly reduces restaurant revenue, the ombudsman criticizes. Mironov explains further: “A mid-range restaurant in Moscow is of a higher standard than a Parisian establishment in the same segment. However, customers are migrating to more affordable options.”

According to forecasts by the Association of Manufacturers and Suppliers of Ready-to-Eat Meals, the market volume for these products will grow to 14 trillion rubles (151.4 billion euros) by 2030, nearly quadrupling from current levels.

Comfort Food on the Rise

Russian restaurateurs agree: there is no single recipe for success in the restaurant industry. As a restaurant operator, you should always keep an eye on trends—or better yet, set the trends yourself. A cohesive concept that reflects the restaurant’s ambiance is just as important as a well-thought-out menu. Restaurateurs predict a shift toward local specialties this year—away from ornate “fine dining,” where chefs try to outdo each other in extravagance. According to restaurateurs, the demand for cozy and “authentic” restaurants serving comfort food—that is, simple and delicious dishes with a touch of nostalgia—will shape menus this year.

This article first appeared in the exclusive newsletter of the German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Trade