What Kommersant, RBC, Vedomosti, Interfax and Forbes Russia report — selected and summarized in English every morning, for readers who don't read Russian. Analysis-grade sourcing, no wire rehash. Data context in the Russia Terminal. Regional wires: Central Asia · Caucasus.
Analysts expect the central bank to pause its easing cycle as the fuel crisis feeds costs, the Moscow Exchange falls to a post-2022 low, the finance ministry lifts 2026 spending, Urals discounts widen, and Euroclear loses its appeal against an 18.2 trillion ruble award.
Fourteen of 20 analysts polled by Vedomosti expect the central bank to keep its key rate at 14.25% at the 24 July meeting; five see a cut of up to 100 basis points. Since the June cut of 25 basis points, the fuel crisis has intensified — several regions have restricted fuel sales and pump prices have risen 2–3% per week, according to Rosstat data cited by the paper. In the central bank's business monitoring, nearly a quarter of companies report higher costs linked to fuel shortages, an inflation risk that argues against faster easing and keeps borrowing costs for Russian counterparties elevated.
Source: Vedomosti, 17 Jul 2026
The MOEX index dropped below 2,100 points intraday and was down about 2.5% in the main session, its lowest reading since December 2022 after 18 consecutive weeks of decline, according to Finam's Dmitry Lesnov. Gazprom shares fell below 84 rubles to an all-time low after the Wall Street Journal reported that China would agree to the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline only at Russian domestic gas prices. Analysts quoted by Kommersant point to domestic drivers — the fuel-market disruption spreading into other sectors and the finance ministry's third failed bond placement — rather than geopolitics alone.
Source: Kommersant, 16 Jul 2026
Federal spending in 2026 is now expected at 45.11 trillion rubles (roughly $575 billion), up from 44.07 trillion in the budget law, according to data from the Electronic Budget portal cited by Kommersant. With expected revenue unchanged at 40.28 trillion rubles, the implied full-year deficit rises to 4.83 trillion rubles (about $62 billion), against the 3.79 trillion, or 1.6% of GDP, set in law. The first-half deficit already reached 5.7 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of GDP, which the ministry attributes to front-loaded financing of expenditures.
Source: Kommersant, 16 Jul 2026
The discount on Urals crude in Russian ports widened by $3–4 per barrel across all delivery routes in the first half of July, and by almost $7 for India, according to Argus data reported by Interfax. In Primorsk the discount to North Sea Dated reached $27 per barrel, up from $24 in June; for delivery to India's west coast it rose by $6.70 to $11.16. Interfax calculates the July reference price for the mineral extraction tax at $50.41 per barrel, down from $63.50 in June and below the $59 budget-rule cutoff — meaning the finance ministry sells foreign currency and gold from reserves to cover the shortfall.
Source: Forbes Russia, 16 Jul 2026
The Ninth Arbitration Appeals Court in Moscow rejected Euroclear's appeal against a May ruling ordering the Belgian depository to pay the Bank of Russia 18.2 trillion rubles (roughly $230 billion), Forbes Russia reports citing Interfax. The court had earlier granted immediate enforcement, and Euroclear has filed a counter-suit in Belgium seeking to nullify the Russian judgment. The case is tied to the roughly €210 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets held mostly at Euroclear and raises the legal stakes for any Western financial institution with assets still reachable in Russia.
Source: Forbes Russia, 16 Jul 2026