What Kommersant, RBC, Vedomosti, Interfax and Forbes Russia report — selected and summarized in English every morning, for readers who don't read Russian. Analysis-grade sourcing, no wire rehash. Data context in the Russia Terminal. Regional wires: Central Asia · Caucasus.
Russia's data flow on 2 July points one way: growth is stalling, the central bank is holding firm on high rates, and a domestic fuel squeeze is now pulling gasoline in from abroad.
Russian GDP rose 0.3% year-over-year in May, down from 1.3% in April, the Economy Ministry reported, leaving growth over the first five months at just 0.2%. Annual inflation stood at 6% as of 29 June, with the weekly rate easing to 0.22%. The ministry's May scenario cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.4% from 1.3% and now projects fixed investment falling 1.5% this year, a signal that the post-2022 expansion has largely run out of momentum.
Source: Forbes.ru, 1 Jul 2026
The Bank of Russia's minutes from its 19 June meeting warned that pro-inflationary risks have narrowed the room to ease policy, and that stabilizing inflation may require a higher key-rate path than the April forecast implied. The regulator cut the rate by 25 basis points to 14.25% in June but named the widening fiscal impulse, compounded by a labor shortage, as the main constraint on the economy. For foreign lenders and investors, the message is that financing costs stay elevated well into the year.
Source: Kommersant, 1 Jul 2026
The dollar rose from 71.1 to 78.7 rubles over June, a 10.5% move, as Brent fell back from its wartime spike and Urals dropped to $62.66 by 30 June, trading below $60 on some days. The Finance Ministry cancelled a planned OFZ auction on 24 June amid market volatility, while the central bank cut its daily FX sales from 4.62 billion to 0.58 billion rubles (roughly $59 million to $7 million) from 1 July. The currency is drifting back toward its familiar 80-per-dollar zone.
Source: Forbes.ru, 1 Jul 2026
Russia has begun importing gasoline from India by sea, Reuters reported, with at least 60,000 tonnes already shipped in two tanker cargoes. Moscow plans to bring in about 400,000 tonnes per month from several countries, including Belarus, which nearly tripled rail deliveries to more than 70,000 tonnes in early June. With summer consumption at no less than 110,000 tonnes per day, the imports underline how refinery outages have turned a net fuel exporter into a buyer on the margin.
Source: Forbes.ru, 1 Jul 2026
Russia's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June from 48.8 in May, according to S&P Global, crossing the line that separates expansion from contraction. It was the second straight monthly gain and the highest reading since January 2025, with new orders stabilizing after a 12-month decline. The uptick offers a rare bright spot against the broader slowdown in the May GDP and investment data.
Source: Kommersant, 1 Jul 2026