What Kommersant, RBC, Vedomosti, Interfax and Forbes Russia report — selected and summarized in English every morning, for readers who don't read Russian. Analysis-grade sourcing, no wire rehash. Data context in the Russia Terminal. Regional wires: Central Asia · Caucasus.
The Bank of Russia framed the fuel-supply squeeze as a temporary shock while signalling a higher key-rate path, as the Finance Ministry halved budget-rule currency buying, Euroclear opened a Belgian front over frozen reserves, and the car market extended its recovery.
Deputy governor Alexei Zabotkin described the situation on Russia's fuel market as a temporary supply shock that mainly feeds inflation expectations, adding that the regulator needs full June price data, due next week, before judging the impact. The early-July rate-review minutes noted that faster fuel-price growth may require a "higher trajectory" for the key rate, which the central bank cut by 0.25 percentage point to 14.25% in June. The government has allowed refineries to sell lower-grade Euro-3 fuel through year-end, free fuel sales are suspended in Crimea, and Putin put petrol stocks at 1.7 million tonnes, close to last year.
Source: Forbes.ru, 3 Jul 2026
From 7 July to 6 August the ministry will buy foreign currency and gold worth 5.4 billion rubles a day (about $70 million), almost half the previous period's 9.9 billion, for a total of 123.2 billion rubles (about $1.6 billion). It expects additional oil-and-gas revenue of 147.3 billion rubles in July, after June receipts came in 24.1 billion rubles below forecast. Netted against the central bank's own FX sales of 0.58 billion rubles a day, daily net purchases fall to 4.82 billion rubles, from 5.3 billion the month before. Smaller state buying reflects softer energy receipts and eases pressure on the ruble at the margin.
Source: Forbes.ru, 3 Jul 2026
Governor Elvira Nabiullina confirmed that the medium-term key-rate trajectory will move up in the July forecast, and six of eight analysts polled by Vedomosti now see 10–12% for 2027, against the current 8–10%. The driver is a looser fiscal stance: a zero structural budget balance is now targeted for 2029 rather than 2026, and this year's deficit may exceed the planned 3.78 trillion rubles. The main revisions are expected at the 23 October meeting, once the next three-year budget is tabled. A higher-for-longer rate raises borrowing costs and weighs on the OFZ market and corporate investment plans.
Source: Vedomosti, 3 Jul 2026
The depository has filed suit in the Brussels Commercial Court seeking to have a Moscow judgment of 18.17 trillion rubles (about $235 billion) declared invalid and its enforcement blocked, arguing that only Belgian courts have jurisdiction. Russia's central bank won that award in Moscow in May over reserves frozen after the invasion of Ukraine, weeks after the EU agreed in December on an indefinite freeze of the assets. Lawyers note that since April 2026 EU Regulation 833/2014 strips Russia's sovereign immunity when it sues an EU company, exposing it to counterclaims. The dispute sets precedent for the enforcement risk around roughly $235 billion in immobilised reserves.
Source: Forbes.ru, 3 Jul 2026
Sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles rose 26.9% year on year in June to 122,731 units, up 5.4% on May, according to industry ministry data; passenger cars alone gained 29.3% to 115,762. First-half volumes were up 13.1% at 650,336 units. Output of Russian-made vehicles jumped 46.2% year on year in June to 82,242 units, lifting the domestic share of the market to 63.4% in the first half, more than eight percentage points higher than a year earlier. The figures point to resilient consumer demand and continued import substitution despite high interest rates.
Source: Interfax, 3 Jul 2026