What Kommersant, RBC, Vedomosti, Interfax and Forbes Russia report — selected and summarized in English every morning, for readers who don't read Russian. Analysis-grade sourcing, no wire rehash. Data context in the Russia Terminal. Regional wires: Central Asia · Caucasus.
The Finance Ministry raised its 2026 spending plan, analysts polled by the central bank cut their growth forecast to 0.6%, and Gazprom shares hit a 17-year low.
Federal budget expenditures for 2026 are now expected at 45.11 trillion rubles (ca. $580bn), up from the 44.07 trillion written into the budget law, according to data from the government's Electronic Budget portal cited by Kommersant. Revenue projections are unchanged at 40.28 trillion rubles, so the expected full-year deficit widens to 4.83 trillion rubles (ca. $62bn) from the legislated 3.79 trillion, or 1.6% of GDP. The first-half deficit already reached 5.7 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of GDP, which the ministry attributes to front-loaded financing of state contracts.
Source: Kommersant, 16 Jul 2026
The Bank of Russia's July macroeconomic survey puts consensus GDP growth at 0.6% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027, both revised down. The same analysts raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 6.2% from 5.3% and expect inflation to approach the 4% target only in 2028–2029. Key rate expectations rose to an average of 14.5% for 2026 — borrowing costs will stay high for longer than businesses had planned.
Source: Vedomosti, 15 Jul 2026
Unplanned refinery shutdowns had a significant negative effect on core-sector output in May, the Bank of Russia said in its "What the Trends Say" bulletin, reducing production of oil products, crude output, wholesale trade and freight volumes. Excluding those sectors, output in April–May exceeded the first-quarter average, and the regulator noted an acceleration of business activity in the second quarter. The fuel-market disruption is now measurable at the macro level.
Source: Vedomosti, 16 Jul 2026
Russia's current account surplus reached $27.0 billion in January–May, up from $21.8 billion a year earlier, according to Bank of Russia estimates. The trade surplus rose 13.7% to $52.3 billion, with goods exports up 11.8% to $182.6 billion and imports up 11.1% to $130.4 billion. The May surplus alone was $8.1 billion, nine times the May 2025 figure — driven mainly by higher export values, the central bank said, and a factor behind the ruble's persistent strength.
Source: Interfax, 15 Jul 2026
Gazprom stock dropped as much as 3.85% to 89.52 rubles on the Moscow Exchange on 15 July, its lowest level since November 2008. Analysts cited by Forbes point to a Wall Street Journal report that China has effectively frozen talks on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, insisting on Russian domestic-market gas prices, alongside weak oil prices, a strong ruble, high interest rates and possible new US sanctions. Gazprom has not paid dividends for more than three years, and the EU ban on Russian pipeline gas takes effect in September 2027.
Source: Forbes, 15 Jul 2026