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A data-heavy Friday in Moscow: consumer inflation reaccelerated and the annual rate crossed 6%, the consolidated budget deficit widened to near 5 trillion rubles, and equities closed at their lowest since 2022 even as oil export volumes climbed to a post-2022 high.
Rosstat reported June consumer prices rose 0.87% month-on-month, up sharply from 0.17% in May, lifting annual inflation to 6.02% from 5.31% at the end of May. The print topped the Interfax analyst consensus of 0.85% month-on-month, and core annual inflation stood at 5.02%; food prices rose 0.65% on the month and 3.42% year-on-year. The reacceleration reduces the room for the Bank of Russia to ease policy further and signals higher-for-longer financing costs for firms operating in Russia.
Source: Interfax, 10 Jul 2026
The consolidated budget ran a deficit of 4.959 trillion rubles (about $65 billion) in January–May 2026, the Federal Treasury reported, up from 4.696 trillion after four months, implying a 263 billion ruble shortfall in May alone. Revenues reached 31.10 trillion rubles against 36.05 trillion rubles in spending; the narrower federal budget deficit was larger still at 5.927 trillion rubles (about $77 billion). The widening gap keeps fiscal pressure on the National Wealth Fund and raises the likelihood of additional borrowing or spending adjustments later in the year.
Source: Interfax, 10 Jul 2026
The International Energy Agency estimated Russian crude and product exports at 7.71 million barrels per day in June, up 390,000 b/d from May and 490,000 b/d year-on-year, with crude alone at 5.8 million b/d — the highest since 2022. Roughly half of exports went to Indian buyers, who lifted purchases by 760,000 b/d to 2.6 million b/d. Despite the volume gains, weaker global prices cut June oil export revenue by nearly $5 billion month-on-month to $15.84 billion, though that remained $2.53 billion above June 2025.
Source: Interfax, 10 Jul 2026
The MOEX Index fell 1.9% on Friday to 2,145.65, ending the week at its lowest since December 2022, while the dollar-denominated RTS Index dropped 2.8% to 881.67, a low since January 2025. Over the week both benchmarks lost between 3.6% and 4.3%, pressured by softer oil (Brent near $75.5), sanctions risk, and expectations of a pause in Bank of Russia easing. Gold producer Polyus led decliners, down 8.8%; the central bank set the dollar at 76.66 rubles for 11 July.
Source: Interfax, 10 Jul 2026
The Agriculture Ministry set export duties on wheat, barley and corn at zero from 15 July through 21 July, removing the 370.1 ruble-per-tonne wheat duty that had applied since 3 July; barley and corn duties have stood at zero since 15 April. The floating "grain damper" levy is calculated weekly from indicative prices, currently $232.3 per tonne for wheat. The zero rate lowers the cost of Russian grain exports and supports competitiveness on world markets during the new marketing season.
Source: Interfax, 10 Jul 2026