Poland's central bank forecasts inflation of 4.2% in 2027: Growth is expected to slow to 2.8%

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) expects inflation to reach 4.2% in Poland in 2027. In July, it had projected a rate of 2.7%. The difference is 1.5 percentage points. The new projection is included in the NBP’s November inflation report.

For 2026, the central bank now expects 3.1% instead of 2.9%. For 2028, it expects 2.8% instead of 2.2%. According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), inflation stood at 3.5% in October. This is shown by the flash estimate for October inflation. In September, the rate had been 4.1%. According to the projection, this easing will not continue.

Inflation in Poland will remain above the target range until early 2028

The NBP’s target is 2.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point. The projection calls for 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 4.6% in the first half of 2027. It is not until the first quarter of 2028 that the rate will fall to 3.4%, dropping below the upper limit of 3.5%. The financial portal Strefa Inwestorów cites these quarterly figures from the report.

Energy is driving prices. The NBP expects energy prices to rise by 7.1% this year and by 8.3% in 2027. Food prices will increase by 0.8% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027. Core inflation is rising from 3% to 3.3%. The central bank cites higher oil and gas prices. In the report, it states: “The main risk to the projection is the further course of the armed conflict in the Middle East” (translated from Polish).

On November 4, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) left the key interest rate at 3.75%. The projection assumes unchanged interest rates. With a 50% probability, inflation in 2027 will range between 3.1% and 5.3%. In July, the range was 1.5% to 4%. NBP President Adam Glapiński told the press on November 5: “If the risks described materialize, the Council is fully prepared to respond decisively and will not hesitate” (translated from Polish).

Growth will slow in 2027

According to the projection, the economy will grow by 3.6% in 2026. In July, the NBP had expected 3.7%. The forecast for 2027 remains at 2.8%. For 2028, the central bank lowered its forecast from 3% to 2.8%.

Investment is driving growth this year. It will rise by 7.2% in 2026 as EU funds from the recovery plan reach their peak. For 2027, the NBP expects only 1.5%, and for 2028, 2.6%. Private consumption will grow by 3% in 2026, 2.8% the following year, and 2.6% in 2028. The NBP attributes this to wages rising more slowly in real terms.

The Monetary Policy Council already sees signs of this slowdown in the latest data. In its statement dated November 4, it states: “In Poland, the available data suggest that annual GDP growth slowed in the third quarter of 2026” (translated from Polish). The GUS’s flash estimate for the third quarter is still pending.

For German exporters, this means that Poland will remain a market with strong investment demand in 2026. Suppliers of machinery and equipment should expect fewer orders from EU-funded projects in 2027. Consumer goods are facing slower-growing demand. Investors should plan for higher interest rates: The Monetary Policy Council has announced it will respond if the risks materialize. Loans in zloty would then become more expensive.

Sources: Narodowy Bank Polski (PL), GUS (PL), PAP (PL), Strefa Inwestorów (PL), Money.pl (PL)

SK, Frankfurt