Poland's inflation rises to 4.1%: Fuel is driving up prices, while industry grows by 4.6%

Poland's consumer prices rose 4.1% in September compared with the same month a year earlier, according to the final figures released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on October 14. In August, the rate stood at 3.4%. The initial estimate had been 4.0%. For the first time since June 2025, inflation is thus above the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) target range: 2.5% with a tolerance of 1 percentage point.

Fuel Drives Inflation

The rise is primarily due to fuel. According to GUS, fuel prices rose by 36.1% compared to the previous year and by 9.2% compared to the previous month. Food prices, on the other hand, were 0.7% lower than a year ago. In August, the decline had still been 1.2%. Services rose by 5.3%, the slowest pace in five months.

Core inflation stood at 3.3% in August. According to preliminary data, it has moderated somewhat in September. The price surge is therefore coming from external factors, not from the broader economy.

Heating fuels also became more expensive. Wood pellets and briquettes cost about 25% more than a year ago, and coal about 13% more. Electricity, district heating, and hot water rose by 3% to 5%.

Following its meeting on October 6 and 7, the NBP Council left the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. The rate has remained at this level since the only cut this year, which took place in March. NBP President Adam Glapiński said on October 8: “Fuel prices are a completely external factor, independent of our measures.” He added: “If risks increase, the Council is ready to act.”

According to the NBP’s November projection, Glapiński considers an interest rate hike possible but not expected. One risk lies in January: the temporary reductions in value-added tax and excise taxes on fuel are set to expire at the end of the year. If the government does not extend them, prices will rise again.

Industry Grows Faster Than Expected

Industrial production rose 4.6% year-over-year in September, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported on October 20. The consensus among economists was 3.1%. The manufacturing sector grew by 4.0%, following 3.1% in August. Mining rose by 12.9%, and energy supply by 10.2%.

Domestic demand is also contributing. According to Glapiński, wages in the corporate sector are rising by about 6%. Gross domestic product grew by about 4.0% in the second quarter, and economic activity slowed only slightly in the third quarter.

What This Means for German Companies

Poland remains a growing market for German intermediate goods and machinery. The industrial sector is demanding more supplies, and wages are supporting consumption. Exporters should review price clauses in contracts with Polish customers, as transportation and energy costs are rising. Investors can expect a stable key interest rate of 3.75%. However, interest rate risk will increase if the November projection indicates higher inflation.

Sources: GUS (PL/EN), NBP press conference on October 8, 2026 (PL)

SK, Frankfurt