44.9% More Investment: Tajikistan's Capital Boom Depends on the Government
Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”
Tajikistan’s capital investments rose by 44.9% in the first nine months of 2026. The Presidential Statistics Agency reports 29.1 billion somoni, equivalent to approximately 3.2 billion U.S. dollars. No other country in Central Asia is currently growing at this pace. The government and the energy sector are driving this growth, while private and foreign investors are playing a decreasing role.
Energy Sector Attracts the Most Funding
The figures come from the Statistical Agency under the President of Tajikistan; they are expressed in constant prices, i.e., adjusted for inflation. The Tajik news agency Asia-Plus reports: The energy sector has become the country’s largest investment sector this year. Nearly half of all funds flowed into districts under republican jurisdiction. There, the Rogun hydroelectric power plant—the most expensive construction project in the country’s history—is being built. The dam is expected to reach a height of 335 meters upon completion—taller than any other in the world. According to Asia-Plus, however, the share of foreign investment in the total volume declined. The upswing is thus primarily driven by a public construction program.
The pace of growth accelerated significantly over the summer. The Azerbaijani news portal Trend reported approximately 5.7 billion somoni—about 618 million U.S. dollars—for July alone. That was 2.4 times the figure for the same month the previous year. From January through July, the increase totaled around 50%. By comparison, investments grew by 20.9% during the same period in 2025. The pace of growth has more than doubled within a year. Trend had already calculated in the summer that if this pace continues, the annual volume in 2026 will exceed 43 billion somoni—more than 4.7 billion U.S. dollars.
EBRD Pledges $900 Million by 2030
External support is coming from abroad. On October 27, President Emomali Rahmon welcomed Matteo Patrone, Vice President for Banking at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), in Dushanbe. According to Asia-Plus, both sides discussed a $900 million investment roadmap for the years 2026 through 2030. Rahmon advocated for privately financed solar power plants, the modernization of power grids, and reduced grid losses. He also called for affordable, long-term loans for small and medium-sized enterprises outside the capital. With the solar power plants, Rahmon aims to improve the electricity supply to households and businesses and sell more clean electricity to neighboring countries. Loans in local currency, preparing Tajik companies for bond issuances, drinking water projects, and better management of state-owned enterprises were also on the agenda.
The EBRD has been operating in Tajikistan since 1993. To date, it has financed 201 projects there totaling more than 1.1 billion euros. The new roadmap would thus roughly triple the bank’s annual pace of investment. For Dushanbe, this would be an important counterbalance, as Western private capital remains scarce.
The Boom Depends on the National Budget
The weak point of the economic upswing is its funding base. The statistics agency attributes the increase primarily to government investments and energy spending. The example of Kazakhstan illustrates just how limited the foreign investment base is. On October 25, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Dushanbe, Valikhan Turekhanov, put Kazakh investments at just over $148 million. Kazakhstan is thus “one of Tajikistan’s largest investors,” he said, according to Asia-Plus. Measured against a total volume of 3.2 billion U.S. dollars in just nine months, that is a small amount.
Trade is faring better. Bilateral trade in goods with Kazakhstan reached $1.13 billion from January through September. Through August, the year-over-year increase stood at 34%. In nine months, Kazakhstan supplied just under 998,200 metric tons of wheat worth $264.1 million, as well as natural gas worth $153.8 million and rebar worth $150.2 million. Reinforcing steel, in particular, shows where the money is going: to the country’s construction sites. In return, Tajikistan exports primarily zinc ores worth $32.2 million and raw lead worth $17.9 million. The trade structure remains asymmetrical: ores and metals in exchange for staple foods and construction materials.
In mid-October, the IMF raised its growth forecast for Tajikistan to 7.3%, up from 6.0%. The construction boom supports this expectation. But it also creates risks. An investment boom funded by the state treasury ties up budget resources for years. It stands or falls with the financing of the Rogun project, whose completion will cost billions more. Whether this pace is sustainable therefore hinges on two questions: Can the government sustain its energy expenditures in the long term without cutting back on schools, roads, and healthcare? And will the EBRD’s commitments attract enough private investors to turn the construction program into a broad investment base?
Source: Asia-Plus (Investments), Asia-Plus (EBRD), Asia-Plus (Kazakhstan), Trend (all EN)