10.8% growth in nine months: Kyrgyzstan sets 8% as its long-term target

Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”

Kyrgyzstan’s economy grew by 10.8% in the first nine months of 2026. According to the National Statistics Committee, gross domestic product reached 1.64 trillion som, equivalent to approximately 18.8 billion U.S. dollars. As a result, the International Monetary Fund significantly raised its annual forecast: from 6.1% in April to 9% now. No country in Central Asia or the Caucasus is currently growing faster; growth was already at 11.1% in 2025. On October 21, President Sadyr Japarov declared this pace to be a permanent state: By the end of 2030, growth is expected to average 8% per year.

Construction and services are driving the boom

Figures from the Statistics Committee released on October 15 show a broad but uneven boom. Construction output rose by more than 60% compared to the same period last year. Industry grew by 7%, agriculture by 6.5%, and trade by 4.2%. Hotels and restaurants grew by 8.6%, thanks in part to tourism. Services account for 48.7% of economic output and remain the most important driver. The driving force behind this is the wave of investment: capital expenditures totaled 365.7 billion manat—about 4.2 billion U.S. dollars—over nine months. According to the Azerbaijani news agency Trend, after eight months, these figures were 61.2% higher than the previous year. Foreign trade is also picking up: merchandise turnover reached 12 billion U.S. dollars in eight months, an increase of 13.3% over the previous year.

Japarov Sets 8% as a National Goal

At a national conference on the “strategic tasks for the next five years” held in Bishkek on October 21, Japarov set the course. According to the Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg, foreign direct investment is expected to grow by 20% annually through 2030. The development program through 2030 also calls for a nominal GDP of at least 30 billion U.S. dollars and 4,500 U.S. dollars per capita. This is to be driven by an export-oriented model focused on food processing, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and light industry. Also planned are Eurobonds issued by state-owned enterprises, more long-term loans from state-owned banks, and the Tamchy Special Financial and Investment Zone on Lake Issyk-Kul. Tourism is also set to become a source of foreign exchange, including through the Ala-Too resort project and an increase in business travel to Bishkek. At the same time, Japarov promised investors more reliable institutions and better protection of private property. “Trust in the state begins with trust in the rule of law and the judiciary,” the president said, according to the Kyrgyz news portal Knews. The English-language regional media outlet The Times of Central Asia highlights the major projects behind the plan. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway line has been underway since December 2024 and is scheduled for completion in 2030. It will cost $4.7 billion, of which $2.3 billion will come in the form of loans from Chinese banks. China holds a 51% stake in the project, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each hold 24.5%. Added to this is the Kambarata-1 hydroelectric power plant, which Bishkek is developing jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The government had already promoted both projects to investors in Geneva in mid-October.

12% inflation is the price of the boom

The IMF’s October Regional Outlook is titled “Steering Through Uncertainty.” For the region’s oil-importing countries, the Fund raised its 2026 growth forecast by 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The report itself highlights the downside: inflation in Kyrgyzstan has reached around 12%, the highest rate among all countries surveyed. The Statistics Committee reports an 8.1% increase in consumer prices since December. The Fund cites a slowdown in re-export trade with Russia and China, rising energy prices, and the banking sector’s vulnerability to sanctions as risks. How long this pace will last is a matter of debate. The IMF expects 7% growth for 2027, while the Asian Development Bank forecasts 8.4%. The World Bank even projects 9.6% growth for the country as early as 2026; by 2031, the IMF anticipates a slowdown to 5.3%. Internationally, the boom is drawing attention: According to 24.kg, the IMF ranks Kyrgyzstan among the world’s five fastest-growing economies in 2026, behind resource and technology powerhouses such as Guyana and Taiwan. In the short term, therefore, Japarov’s 8% target seems rather conservative. The government itself is tempering the euphoria: As early as September, Prime Minister Adylbek Kasymaliev stated, according to the Kyrgyz financial portal Akchabar, that growth must be measured by new jobs and living standards, not by statistics. It remains to be seen how much growth will remain without the credit-driven construction boom and whether the National Bank will rein in prices before inflation erodes real incomes and, with them, consumer spending.

Source: Xinhua, Trend, The Times of Central Asia, 24.kg, Akchabar (EN), Knews (RU)