Kazakhstan's inflation falls to 9.3%: The central bank will decide on the key interest rate on October 23

Kazakhstan's inflation rate fell to 9.3% in September, down from 9.8% in August, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. According to Trading Economics, this is the lowest rate since January 2025. The central bank will decide on October 23 on the key interest rate, which currently stands at 16.25%.

Vegetables and meat are keeping prices in check

Food prices rose 8.5% year-over-year, down from 9.5% in August. On a month-over-month basis, they fell by 0.1%. Onions, potatoes, and other vegetables became significantly cheaper. Meat and poultry prices rose by 10.2%, down from 12.9% the previous month.

Prices for non-food items rose by 11.0%, down from 11.4%. Gasoline prices rose by 10.1%, down from 12.8%. Clothing prices accelerated to 10.6%. Prices for paid services remain at 8.9%. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.6% overall.

Trend attributes the decline primarily to a favorable base effect and the harvest. The current price inflation shows little sign of slowing.

The central bank slows the easing

On September 4, the National Bank lowered the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.25%. Inflation had fallen for the eleventh consecutive month. Governor Timur Suleimenov said, “Our goal is not merely to keep inflation below 10%. Our goal is sustainable and stable inflation of around 5% by 2028.”

The bank continues to see risks on the inflation front. Its statement reads: “The balance of risks remains tilted toward inflation.” It notes that the scope for further cuts is limited. It expects inflation of 9% to 11% for 2026 and 6.5% to 8.5% for 2027.

Expectations are falling, but only slowly. Households expect inflation of 12.1% over the next twelve months, down from 13.4% in June. Market professionals continue to expect inflation of around 10% by the end of 2026. Core inflation stood at 0.7% month-over-month in August. Housing and utility costs remained at 6.3% in September.

The economy grew by 4.1% from January through July. Capital expenditures rose by 7.7%. The bank forecasts growth of 4.5% to 5.5% for 2026. It projects an oil price of $89 per barrel this year and $75 in 2027.

For German exporters, credit in tenge remains expensive at 16.25%. Those who invoice in local currency should hedge against exchange rate risk. The 7.7% increase in investment is supporting demand for machinery and equipment. Investors should wait for the interest rate decision on October 23 before committing to financing in tenge.

Sources: Bureau of National Statistics via Trend (EN), Trading Economics (EN), National Bank of Kazakhstan via BIS (EN), Astana Times (EN)

SK, Frankfurt