What Kommersant, RBC, Vedomosti, Interfax and Forbes Russia report — selected and summarized in English every morning, for readers who don't read Russian. Analysis-grade sourcing, no wire rehash. Data context in the Russia Terminal. Regional wires: Central Asia · Caucasus.
Trade with the European Union fell to its lowest level this century, a second wave of fuel shortages forced Russia to import gasoline, and the Central Bank signalled that the economy's long-run growth ceiling sits near the bottom of its official range.
Two-way trade between Russia and the European Union came to 26.9 billion euros in the first half of 2026, down 13% year-on-year and below any six-month period since the first half of 1999, according to Kommersant's analysis of Eurostat data. Russian exports to the bloc were 12.2 billion euros against 14.8 billion euros of EU deliveries to Russia, leaving Brussels with a 2.6 billion euro surplus for the second consecutive half-year, a reversal of the deficits that ran into the tens of billions before 2022. Oil purchases more than halved to 1.3 billion euros, ferrous metals nearly halved to 715.4 million euros and fertiliser shipments fell almost fivefold to 298 million euros, while pharmaceuticals, exempt from sanctions, became the largest EU export to Russia at 5.7 billion euros, up 21%.
Source: Kommersant, 20 Aug 2026
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia has begun importing fuel and confirmed that the domestic market has entered a second phase of strain, which Forbes attributes to renewed drone strikes on refineries. The government banned diesel exports on 8 July and has permitted the production and import of lower-grade Euro-2, Euro-3 and Euro-4 gasoline through year-end; independent analyst Kirill Kuchinsky told Forbes that July imports from Belarus reached about 212,000 tonnes of gasoline, 13% more than in June, with seven-month volumes up 25-fold year-on-year to almost 665,000 tonnes, plus additional cargoes from Morocco. Portal BenZinMap counted 58 of 89 regions under strict rationing on 15 August, with local disruptions or price increases in another 18, a supply picture that bears directly on logistics costs and industrial operations.
Source: Forbes.ru, 19 Aug 2026
Household inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 13.7% in August from 14.7%, and perceived inflation to 14.3% from 15.1%, according to the inFOM survey commissioned by the Bank of Russia; five-year expectations rose to 12.4% from 11.2%. The improvement sits against accelerating current prices: seasonally adjusted annualised core inflation rose to 7% in July from 5.3%, and producer prices for petroleum products are up 26.6% since the start of the year. Egor Susin of Gazprombank noted the survey ran 4-13 August, before the second fuel-market squeeze fed through, and October utility tariff indexation still lies ahead, which is why the 11 September meeting is split between a 0.25 point cut from the current 14% and a pause.
Source: Kommersant, 20 Aug 2026
Two analytical papers published by the Bank of Russia place inflation-neutral GDP growth at 1.5-2% for 2026-2029 and 1.3% a year in an inertial scenario through 2035, against the regulator's official potential range of 1.5-2.5%. The authors put median potential output growth at 1.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, 0.4 points lower than a year earlier, and the output gap at roughly minus 0.5% of potential GDP, meaning little spare capacity remains and further demand stimulus would mostly produce inflation. For investors the message is that the 2023-2024 expansion rested on capacity utilisation and employment gains that are now exhausted, with total factor productivity growth near zero; the July consensus survey of economists puts long-run growth at 1.7% and 2026 growth at 0.6%.
Source: Kommersant, 19 Aug 2026
Russia's Federal Customs Service assessed businesses an additional 35.2 billion roubles (about 414 million dollars) following audits in the first half of 2026, 25% more than the 28.1 billion roubles of January-June 2025, according to agency data seen by Vedomosti. Collection is lagging the assessments: the budget received 72.2% of the total this year against 79.4% a year earlier, and logistics operator Optimalog reports its average claim per audit more than doubled to about 800,000 roubles (roughly 9,400 dollars) from 360,000. The principal findings are understated customs value and incorrect tariff classification; KVT's Yulia Shlenskaya flags 134 criminal cases for customs-duty evasion in the first quarter, more than in any quarter of 2025, while the Finance Ministry has proposed extending the customs control period from three years to five where an audit has been successfully appealed.
Source: Vedomosti, 19 Aug 2026