What Kommersant, RBC, Vedomosti, Interfax and Forbes Russia report — selected and summarized in English every morning, for readers who don't read Russian. Analysis-grade sourcing, no wire rehash. Data context in the Russia Terminal. Regional wires: Central Asia · Caucasus.
The Bank of Russia's darker 2026 outlook set the tone on Monday: growth and inflation forecasts moved the wrong way, credit is cooling, the first crypto-market rules arrived, Nornickel reported lower output, and CPC oil loadings restarted after drone attacks on tankers in the Black Sea.
The Bank of Russia now expects GDP growth of 0–1% this year, down from 0.5–1.5% in its April forecast, and year-end inflation of 6–7% instead of 4.5–5.5% — a downgrade delivered alongside the 24 July key rate cut to 14%. The regulator also cut its 2026 current account surplus forecast from $72bn to $48bn, the trade surplus from $155bn to $119bn, and the oil price used for tax purposes from $65 to $60 per barrel, and now assumes a structural primary budget deficit of about 2% of GDP this year. The regulator attributes the shift to a supply shock and a summer fuel-price spike it views as temporary; for foreign observers, it is the clearest official confirmation yet that the economy is stalling even as rates come down.
Source: Kommersant, 27 Jul 2026
Growth of the broad money supply (M2X) slowed in June, mainly on shrinking foreign-currency deposits, with annual growth easing to 12.9%, according to Bank of Russia data. Credit to the economy also grew more slowly than in May, though its annual growth rate was almost unchanged at 9.9%, and lending remained the main driver of money creation. The data supports the central bank's cooling narrative and suggests the rate-cutting cycle has yet to reignite credit demand.
Source: Vedomosti, 27 Jul 2026
The central bank has published its first draft regulations for launching an organized cryptocurrency market in Russia: exchanges will set the trading regime and calculate market and weighted-average prices, while new "digital depositories" recording crypto holdings will need minimum capital of 50m–250m rubles (roughly $0.6m–3.2m) depending on their activities. The Bank of Russia will maintain the depository registry and set the rules for recording digital currencies and opening accounts. The framework moves crypto from a legal gray zone toward a supervised market — relevant for any foreign firm watching how Russia builds payment channels outside the conventional banking system.
Source: Interfax, 27 Jul 2026
Norilsk Nickel produced 43,280 tonnes of nickel in the second quarter, down 4% year-over-year, and 85,030 tonnes in the first half, down 2%, citing repairs including a furnace overhaul at the Nadezhda plant completed ahead of schedule. Second-quarter copper output was flat at 104,400 tonnes, though first-half copper fell 5%. The company confirmed 2026 guidance of 193,000–203,000 tonnes of nickel and 336,000–356,000 tonnes of copper — a steady signal from one of the few Russian exporters still deeply embedded in global metals supply chains.
Source: Interfax, 27 Jul 2026
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has resumed receiving and loading crude at its Novorossiysk terminal, Kazakhstan's energy ministry said, after operations were suspended on 23 July following drone attacks on tankers in the Black Sea that forced Kazakhstan to curb production. Two tankers are currently loading Tengizchevroil crude at the terminal's mooring points. The route carries more than 80% of Kazakhstan's pipeline oil exports — about 70.5m tonnes in 2025, with 72m tonnes forecast for 2026 — and over 75% of volumes belong to foreign shippers including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Eni and Shell, making the corridor's security a direct commercial exposure for Western majors.
Source: Interfax, 27 Jul 2026