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Fiscal data dominates the day: the Finance Ministry booked an August budget surplus on the back of state-company dividends while the eight-month deficit stands at 5.8 trillion rubles, Anton Siluanov named a $50 cut-off price as the baseline for the new budget rule, analysts expect the Central Bank to hold at 14% on Friday, Sberbank posted a 19% profit increase, and SovEcon cut its wheat export forecast as Azov and Black Sea shipments stall.
The federal budget closed August with a surplus of 660 billion rubles (about $7.7 billion), only the second monthly surplus this year after 280 billion rubles in June, according to Finance Ministry data reported by Kommersant. The surplus rests on one-off dividend inflows of 691 billion rubles from state shareholdings, 425 billion of them from Sberbank; without them the month would have been roughly balanced. Over January-August revenues reached 25.9 trillion rubles (+9.2% year-on-year) and spending 31.7 trillion (+14.7%), leaving a deficit of 5.8 trillion rubles (about $68 billion), or 2.5% of GDP, against a full-year plan of 3.8 trillion. Non-oil-and-gas revenues rose 18.1% to 20.9 trillion rubles, driven by VAT at the higher rate (11.3 trillion, +26.3%), while oil-and-gas revenues of 5 trillion still trail last year by 16.7%. Kommersant notes that the budget portal now shows planned spending of 45.4 trillion rubles, which implies a 2026 deficit of about 5.1 trillion rubles.
Source: Kommersant, 10 Sep 2026
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told journalists that the government treats a reduction of the budget rule's oil cut-off price to $50 per barrel as the baseline scenario, adding that no other options are under consideration. Current law sets the cut-off at $59 with a glide path of $1 per year to $55 by 2030; Siluanov said that trajectory no longer matches market conditions and that the government wants a decision applying from 2027. The government will review the draft 2027-2029 federal budget in the last ten days of September. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month that $50 was a possible figure and that lowering the cut-off is meant to stabilise budget revenues and replenish the National Wealth Fund. A lower cut-off means more oil revenue is saved rather than spent, tightening the fiscal stance for 2027 regardless of where Urals trades.
Source: Interfax, 9 Sep 2026
Most analysts polled by Interfax expect the Bank of Russia to keep its key rate at 14% at Friday's meeting, with only a minority forecasting a further 25 basis point cut to 13.75%. In July the regulator surprised markets with a 25 basis point cut and dropped its directional signal. Annual inflation calculated from Rosstat weekly data slowed to 6.29% on 7 September from 6.32% on 31 August; final August figures are due on 11 September. SberCIB Investment Research argues that elevated inflation expectations, missing final August data and the absence of updated three-year budget parameters favour caution, and sees the rate at 13.5% by year-end. Renaissance Capital points to faster price growth in the stable part of the consumer basket, higher inflation expectations and stronger consumer lending as reasons for a pause.
Source: Interfax, 9 Sep 2026
Sberbank reported net profit under Russian accounting standards of 1,332.7 billion rubles (about $15.6 billion) for January-August 2026, up 19% year-on-year, with August profit of 169.1 billion rubles (+14.2%). Return on equity was 22.9% for the eight months against 22.2% a year earlier. Net interest income rose 24.8% to 2,441.3 billion rubles, while net fee income was flat at 475.9 billion and fell 4.2% in August after a change in transaction-service tariffs. Provisions and fair-value loan revaluation rose 1.6-fold to 532.3 billion rubles, and 2.3-fold in August alone to 107.8 billion, which the bank attributed to ruble weakening. Core capital adequacy slipped 0.3 percentage points to 10.1% and total capital adequacy to 13.1%. The result confirms that the largest Russian lender keeps earning through the high-rate cycle, while provisioning costs are rising with the weaker ruble.
Source: Interfax, 9 Sep 2026
Consultancy SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 season (July-June) by 3.2 million tonnes to 41.4 million tonnes, citing shipping problems in the Azov-Black Sea basin. Barley is now seen at 3 million tonnes (-0.2 million) and corn at 3 million (-0.6 million), taking total grain exports to 49.4 million tonnes from 53.8 million a month earlier. Shipments from Azov Sea ports stopped in mid-July and Black Sea port operations have been almost halted since mid-August; limited volumes move via the Caspian, rail and Baltic ports. SovEcon expects September wheat exports of around 2 million tonnes and no normalisation of shipping in the coming weeks. The US Department of Agriculture cut its own forecast by 1.5 million tonnes to 46 million in August. For importers, the constraint means smaller Russian volumes and a shift of remaining flows to Caspian, rail and Baltic routes.
Source: Interfax, 9 Sep 2026