Retail Sales Up 3.8%: Polish Consumers Are Buying Cars and Furniture, but Less Clothing
Poland's retail sales in August were up 3.8% from the previous year. The Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported this on September 22, based on constant prices. Analysts had expected a 4.5% increase, according to a survey by the PAP Biznes agency. Compared to July, sales fell by 0.3%. In current prices, the increase was 6.4%.
Durable goods are driving sales
Sales of motor vehicles rose by 11.7%, while furniture, electronics, and household appliances increased by 10.6%. Sales of other goods grew by about 11%, and sales of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics by 6.2%. Fuel sales rose by 1.1%, and food and beverages by 1.0%. Clothing and shoes fell by 2.7%.
So Poles are making major purchases but cutting back on everyday expenses. Fuel sales at current prices rose by more than 20%. Almost all of this growth is due to higher prices, not higher volumes. This is reported by the website xyz.pl. More expensive fill-ups are boosting gas station sales without an increase in the volume of fuel sold.
Seasonally adjusted, the increase is higher: xyz.pl reports 4.6% for August. The month-over-month decline thus primarily reflects the calendar effect. The trend remains intact, even if it is losing momentum.
Demand for clothing and shoes weakened in August. Those who supply fashion to Poland are the first to feel this. Growth in the food sector remains just above zero at 1.0%. Consumer spending is thus concentrated on a few product categories, primarily cars, furniture, and electronics.
Real wages are growing more slowly
Economist Michał Kulbacki has not yet observed any dampening effect. “There is no clear sign so far that high fuel prices are noticeably dampening consumption,” he said, according to xyz.pl. The quote is taken from the original English text and has been translated.
At the same time, Kulbacki warns about the wage front. Real wages are now rising by only 2.1% compared to the previous year. In the long run, this pace provides only weak support for consumption. Households will have less leeway for additional purchases as soon as energy and fuel prices continue to rise. In August, year-over-year sales growth was already slower than in July, when GUS reported a 3.9% increase.
What this means for German exporters
German automakers, suppliers, and dealers are seeing stable demand in Poland. This also applies to suppliers of furniture, electronics, and household appliances. Clothing and food exporters, however, are facing a weak market. Those who ship to Poland should keep an eye on wage trends this fall. If real wages continue to fall, it will first affect expensive purchases.
Sources: GUS (PL/EN), PAP Biznes (PL), xyz.pl (EN)
SK, Frankfurt