Consumer confidence at 105.1 points: Czech consumers are buying, but industry is hesitant

Consumer confidence in the Czech Republic rose by 2.8 points to 105.1 points in September, according to a report released by the Czech Statistical Office (ČSÚ) on September 24. A year ago, the figure stood at 97.9 points. The increase brings an end to two months of declining figures.

Businesses see the situation differently. Their confidence indicator fell by 1.8 points to 98.4 points. The overall indicator dropped by 1.0 points to 99.5 points, placing it below its long-term average.

Retail is the only sector showing improved sentiment

The ČSÚ cites reduced concerns about the economy as the reason for the improvement among households. “At the same time, there was a slight increase in the share of respondents who expect their financial situation to improve over the next twelve months,” said Anastasija Neradová from the ČSÚ’s Economic Surveys Department.

Household price expectations, however, remained high. According to the ČSÚ, concerns about rising prices and higher unemployment remained largely unchanged compared to August. The proportion of consumers not planning any major purchases fell only slightly.

Among businesses, sentiment improved only in the retail sector. “Business confidence in the economy declined in September across all sectors monitored, with the exception of retail,” said Jiří Obst, head of the ČSÚ’s Business Surveys Department. Demand in the industrial sector, in particular, fell significantly.

Online retail drives sales

The hard sales data supports this picture. Retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 4.8% in real terms in July compared with a year earlier, the ČSÚ reported on September 4. In June, the increase stood at 3.4% after revision. Compared with the previous month, sales rose by 0.6%.

Mail-order and online retail grew by 12.4% and made the largest contribution. Grocery stores with a wide range of products saw a 2.7% increase. Pharmacies and drugstores increased their sales by 7.8%, while clothing and footwear sales rose by 8.8%. Only the household goods sector saw a decline.

“In July, price-adjusted retail sales rose year-over-year for the 32nd consecutive month,” said Jana Gotvaldová, who heads the statistics for trade, transportation, and services at ČSÚ. Tomáš Prouza, president of the SOCR trade association, sees wages as the driving force. “Wages have been rising faster than prices for some time now,” he said on September 4.

ČSÚ will publish the August retail data in early October. Petr Dufek, chief economist at Banka Creditas, expects an increase of around 4% for the full year. For 2027, he forecasts about 3%, as inflation rises and real incomes grow more slowly.

Implications for German Suppliers

For German retailers and consumer goods manufacturers, the Czech Republic remains a growing sales market. Chains with German owners are meeting this demand, including Kaufland, Lidl, Penny, and Globus. Online retail is growing more than twice as fast as the overall market. This is where the greatest potential lies for brand manufacturers. Industrial suppliers, on the other hand, should keep an eye on weak demand in Czech industry. This is affecting the machinery sector and intermediate goods first.

Sources: ČSÚ – Economic Surveys September 2026 (CS), ČSÚ – Retail July 2026 (CS), ČTK (CS), fintag.cz (CS), FXstreet.cz (CS)

SK, Frankfurt