Slovakia: Inflation Holds Steady at 3.1%; Food Prices Fall 3.2%
Inflation in Slovakia stood at 3.1% in September, according to a report released by the Slovak Statistical Office (ŠÚ SR) on October 15. The rate remained unchanged from August and is the lowest it has been in 21 months. On a month-over-month basis, prices rose by 0.2%, the sharpest increase in four months. The average inflation rate for the first nine months was 3.5%.
Food Prices Down, Gas Prices Up
Food and non-alcoholic beverages cost 3.2% less than a year ago. They are the only product group with falling prices. On a month-over-month basis, they fell by 1%, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Milk became 2.2% cheaper, fruit 4.4%, and grain products, including bread, 1.4%.
The trend was reversed for transportation. Prices here rose by 9.1% compared with the previous year. Fuel prices increased by 22.2%, with a 5.5% increase in September alone. Of 13 product categories, 12 saw year-over-year increases: ranging from 0.7% for clothing to 9.1% for transportation.
Core inflation, excluding regulated prices, fell to 1.5% according to Trading Economics. This is the lowest level since February 2021. Housing and utilities, on the other hand, rose by 7.8%. On a month-over-month basis, 8 of the 13 product categories rose: from 0.3% for personal care to 2.2% for education. Four categories became cheaper, with the sharpest decline in recreation, sports, and culture at minus 1.1%.
The National Bank expects a slight increase
Branislav Karmažin, an analyst at the Slovak National Bank (NBS), saw the turnaround coming early. On October 2, he commented on the statistical office’s flash estimate. His statement, translated here from Slovak: “Headline inflation is therefore expected to accelerate slightly to 3.2%.” He is referring to October.
For the year as a whole, Karmažin expects higher inflation. “In 2026, we expect average inflation of about 3.6%,” he said. This forecast dates from early October and does not yet include the September figures.
What This Means for German Companies
For German exporters, the situation is twofold. The food retail sector in Slovakia is under price pressure, and retailers are passing this pressure on to their suppliers. Those supplying consumer goods should expect tight margins. Slovakia pays in euros, so there is no exchange rate risk. Freight forwarders and industrial customers, on the other hand, are feeling the impact of fuel prices, which have risen by more than a fifth. Contracts with price escalation clauses for transportation provide protection against further spikes. The NBS expects inflation to rise slightly again in October, which will narrow the scope for price reductions in the retail sector.
Sources: Štatistický úrad SR (SK), TASR/teraz.sk (SK), NBS analyst commentary via openiazoch.zoznam.sk (SK), Trading Economics (EN)
SK, Frankfurt