Poland's inflation jumps to 4.0%: Fuel prices rise by 36.1%
Poland’s inflation rose to 4.0% in September, according to a flash estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on September 30. The rate stood at 3.4% in August and 2.9% in September 2025. This puts it outside the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) target range: the NBP’s target is 2.5%, with a tolerance of 1 percentage point above and below. Compared to the previous month, prices rose by 0.7%. The increase from August was 0.6 percentage points.
Fuel prices are driving the increase
The main driver is fuel. According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), fuel costs are 36.1% higher than a year ago. Within a single month, they rose by 9.2%. Energy prices rose by 4.9% year-over-year and by 0.9% compared to the previous month.
The Notes from Poland portal cites two causes: the end of government price subsidies and tensions in the Middle East. As early as July, the value-added tax on fuels returned to 23%. At that time, inflation stood at 3.0%. According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), prices in the transportation sector rose by 7.4% within a month and by 7.0% year-over-year. Since July, inflation in this sector has been accelerating month over month: from 3.0% to 3.4% and now to 4.0%.
Food prices are holding down the overall rate. They are 0.5% cheaper than a year ago. On a month-over-month basis, they cost 0.1% more.
Interest rate turnaround looms
The figure is 0.1 percentage points below analysts’ forecasts. Nevertheless, pressure on monetary policy is mounting. The NBP’s key interest rate stands at 3.75%. At its peak in 2021 and 2022, it stood at 6.75%.
Piotr Bawolski, Director of Strategic Clients at the brokerage firm Michael/Ström, sees a possible consequence. The figure “could be one of the factors increasing pressure for an interest rate hike sooner than previously expected.” He adds a caveat: The decision depends on the overall inflation picture.
Analysts at ING Bank expect the central bank to remain cautious. They write: “The Council could wait and see and leave interest rates unchanged in October. Discussions about tightening could begin in November.” According to the Polandinsight portal, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) could focus primarily on core inflation, which excludes food and energy.
What This Means for German Companies
German exporters feel the impact of fuel prices first and foremost in logistics. Those who ship goods to Poland by truck or deliver to customers there pay more for every kilometer. Price escalation clauses in current contracts now warrant a review. Investors financing projects in Poland with loans in zloty should keep an eye on the NBP’s interest rate path: A tightening this winter would make financing more expensive. Importers of Polish goods should also expect higher freight rates.
Sources: GUS (PL), Notes from Poland (EN), Polandinsight (EN), money.pl (PL), Polskie Radio (EN)
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