Azerbaijan's trade surplus rises to $10.52 billion: One-time gold inflows distort the picture

Azerbaijan posted a trade surplus of $10.52 billion from January through September. The Customs Committee reported exports of $23.87 billion, an increase of 28.3% over the previous year. Imports fell by 20.4% to US$13.35 billion. The data is nine days old; the World Bank includes it in its October report.

Gold Skews the Trade Balance

The World Bank reports the following figures for January through August: exports of $21.8 billion, up 27.8%. Imports fell by 24.1% to $11.4 billion. The surplus stands at $10.4 billion. Non-monetary gold accounts for $3.7 billion of exports. It was largely recorded by June and stems from the reallocation of the SOFAZ sovereign wealth fund.

The World Bank notes: “The turnaround continues to reflect one-time gold flows.” The quote is taken from the English report and has been translated. According to the Customs Committee, non-oil exports reached $6.65 billion. They account for 27.87% of total exports.

The State Statistics Committee reports the following for January through September: Industry excluding oil and gas grew by 5.4%. Transportation and storage increased by 10%, and information and communication services by 11.1%. The total volume of foreign trade amounts to 37.21 billion U.S. dollars.

Weak Growth, Strong Currency

The economy grew by 1.2% from January through August, according to the World Bank. In July, the figure was still 1.4%. The non-oil sector grew by 2.1%. Hydrocarbon production contracted by 0.8%. Inflation stood at 5.7% in August, within the central bank’s target range of 4% plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The manat remains pegged to the U.S. dollar. The World Bank states: “The exchange rate remains effectively fixed at 1.70 manat per U.S. dollar.” The central bank’s reserves reached a record high of $15.3 billion on September 1. That is 35.8% more than a year earlier. According to the World Bank, total strategic reserves stand at around 91 billion U.S. dollars (as of September 24). The Ministry of Finance plans for non-oil sectors to account for 82% of economic output by 2030.

Implications for German Exporters and Investors

Imports have been declining for months. German suppliers of machinery and consumer goods must expect weaker demand. The strong currency and high reserves reduce the payment risk for shipments to Baku. Investors should keep an eye on the non-oil sector: it is growing, while oil production is shrinking.

Sources: State Customs Committee and State Statistical Committee (EN, via AzerNews), World Bank Azerbaijan Monthly Economic Update October 2026 (EN)

SK, Frankfurt