Azerbaijan's Economy Grows by 1.5%: The Non-Oil Sector Is Driving Economic Growth
Azerbaijan's economy grew by 1.5% from January through September, according to a statement released by the State Statistics Committee on October 9. Gross domestic product reached 102.05 billion manat. The non-oil sector grew by 2.6% to 71.72 billion manat. The oil and gas sector contracted by 1.2% to 30.33 billion manat.
Growth Remains Moderate; Non-Oil Industry Gains Ground
In the same period last year, the economy grew by 1.3%, Interfax reported on October 13, 2025, citing the Statistics Committee. At that time, the non-oil sector grew by 2.9%, while the oil and gas sector declined by 1.9%. The pace of growth in the non-oil sector has thus slowed slightly.
Industry excluding oil and gas increased its production by 5.4%. Transportation and warehousing grew by 10%. Information and communication services rose by 11.1%.
On June 17, 2026, Minister of Economy Mikayil Jabbarov summarized the years 2021 through 2025. He said: “The average annual growth of the non-oil and gas economy amounted to 6%.” In English: The non-oil sector grew by an average of 6% per year. The quote is therefore from June. According to Jabbarov, the sector’s share of GDP rose from 58% to 71%.
Gold exports distort the trade balance
Exports rose by 28.3% from January to September, reaching $23.865 billion. Imports fell by 20.4% to $13.346 billion. The surplus amounts to $10.519 billion and is about 5.7 times higher than in the previous year. This figure is based on calculations by AzerNews using data from the Customs Committee.
The World Bank attributes the surge primarily to one-time gold flows. Excluding gold, exports grew by only 5.9% from January through August. The value of crude oil exports rose by 10.6% to $9.3 billion, while the volume fell by 7.8%. Inflation stood at 5.7% in August; the Central Bank’s target range is 4% plus or minus 2 percentage points. The central bank’s foreign exchange reserves reached a record high of $15.3 billion as of September 1, an increase of 35.8% from the previous year.
The Ministry of Finance projects average GDP growth of 3.3% through 2030 and 4.4% in the non-oil sector. The oil price is expected to be $65 per barrel starting in 2027.
What this means for German exporters
Growth is occurring in industry, logistics, and communications. Mechanical engineering firms, suppliers of processing technology, and logistics service providers are finding demand there. Imports, however, have fallen significantly. Those who supply goods to Azerbaijan are encountering cautious buyers. The country’s large reserves support the manat and ensure solvency. Investors should not view the trade surplus as a permanent state of affairs, as it relies heavily on gold.
Source: State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan via APA, October 9, 2026 (EN); Interfax, October 13, 2025 (EN); World Bank, Azerbaijan Monthly Economic Update, October 2026 (EN); AzerNews, October 19, 2026 (EN); APA, June 17, 2026 (EN)
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