$77.4 billion and 3% debt: Turkmenistan courts investors in Ashgabat
Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”
$77.4 billion in economic output, 3% external debt, 6.3% growth: With these figures, Turkmenistan sought to attract foreign capital on October 1 in Ashgabat. According to the organizers, more than 850 delegates from around 50 countries attended the two-day Turkmenistan Investment Forum (TIF 2026), including representatives from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the EBRD. For Central Asia’s most closed economy, this disclosure alone is a rare step. The forum took place during the year marking the 35th anniversary of independence, but the agenda remained firmly focused on economic matters.
Finance Minister Presents 2025 Report
Finance and Economy Minister Mammetguly Astanagulov opened the forum with a review of the country’s performance. According to Turkmenistan’s government portal, the official news channel of the government in Ashgabat, the gross domestic product reached $77.4 billion by the end of 2025. Growth remained stable at 6.3%. Foreign trade turnover increased by 11% compared to 2024. Exports exceeded 11.2 billion U.S. dollars, and investments reached 12.8 billion U.S. dollars. The Ministry put inflation at 3.6% for the first half of 2026. “Over the past five years, Turkmenistan’s gross domestic product has grown by a factor of one and a half,” Astanagulov said, according to the portal. The regional news service News Central Asia, a portal specializing in Turkmenistan and based in Ashgabat, adds: Foreign debt stood at 3% of GDP at the end of 2025. This is by far the lowest figure in Central Asia. A message of greeting read aloud on behalf of President Serdar Berdimuhamedov promised the guests continuity in investment policy. Among the participants, News Central Asia lists corporations such as Samsung C&T, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Siemens Energy, as well as export credit agencies and international financial institutions. About 370 delegates traveled from abroad.
Ashgabat Offers More Than Just Gas
The minister’s list of offerings extended far beyond the energy sector. Astanagulov cited oil and gas, petrochemicals, power generation, construction, transportation and logistics, the agricultural sector, as well as digital technology and artificial intelligence as priority areas. Added to these are fintech, cybersecurity, and e-government. The message behind this: Turkmenistan wants to reduce its dependence on the gas business. That is precisely where diversification is stalling. According to the EBRD, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Turkmenistan began swap deliveries to Turkey in March 2025. However, these accounted for only 2.6% of gas production. According to the EBRD, domestic conditions and politically sensitive transit corridors continue to limit market access. The TAPI pipeline to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India also remains a long-term project: so far, only the section extending just short of Herat has been completed. Ashgabat therefore presented investors primarily with domestic projects as references. These include the 600-kilometer highway from Ashgabat to Turkmenabat, which was fully opened in 2026; a hybrid wind and solar power plant near Gyzylarbat; and the modernization of the Seydi refinery. At the Galkynysh gas field—the second-largest in the world—the next phase of expansion, with Chinese participation, is already underway.
EBRD Confirms Growth, Expresses Doubts About the Data
It is noteworthy that this time, the independent forecast differs only slightly from the official figure. In its country report for 2025 and 2026, the EBRD expects growth of 6.3% in each year, driven by investments in energy, construction, infrastructure, and industry. According to the bank, capital investments rose by 15.6% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 17.7% of GDP. By regional comparison, however, the pace remains moderate: The Trend news agency reported 8.2% growth for Tajikistan in the first half of 2026, while Kyrgyzstan reached 11% after eight months, according to the AKIpress agency. As evidence, the bank cites, among other things, a highway construction contract worth more than $2 billion signed in September 2024. However, the London-based development bank also identifies areas of weakness. It cites the liberalization of the foreign exchange market as the most urgent reform. According to the EBRD, the large gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market rate leads to significant misallocations in the economy. The government’s dollar-denominated figures are based on the fixed official rate; at the market rate, the balance sheet would be significantly smaller. Furthermore, the lack of reliable, transparent data hinders effective decision-making. The figures from Ashgabat cannot be independently verified, as Turkmenistan does not publish regular detailed statistics. Whether the 850 delegates will become actual investors therefore hinges on two factors: the currency issue and access to data. As long as both remain unresolved, the country’s low debt level remains its strongest selling point.
Source: Turkmenistan Government Portal, News Central Asia, EBRD Transition Report, Trend, AKIpress (all in English)