Despite the drought, 19.9 million metric tons: Kazakhstan's grain harvest is progressing faster than in the record year
Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”
As of September 29, Kazakhstan had harvested 19.9 million metric tons of grain, covering only 83% of the total area. The average yield stands at 14.7 deciton per hectare, despite a dry summer. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in previous years of drought, the yield fell to 8 to 9 decitonnes. At the same time, the government announced six grain processing projects totaling $4 billion.
Harvest is progressing faster than in the record year of 2025
Deputy Minister of Agriculture Asat Sultanov presented the figures on September 29 at a government meeting in Astana, according to the Kazakh online magazine Wlast. A total of 13.5 million hectares have been harvested, representing 83% of the grain-growing area. “Harvesting began on time and is proceeding faster than last year,” Sultanov said, according to Wlast. The comparison supports this: By the end of September 2025, the ministry had reported only 15.5 million metric tons from 10.2 million hectares. That season ended with a record harvest of 27.1 million metric tons. Wheat alone accounted for 20.3 million metric tons in 2025, about 500,000 metric tons more than in 2024. The yield in 2025 was 17 decitonnes per hectare; this year, it is 14.7. The summer was significantly too dry in key growing regions. The heat is therefore reducing yields, but less so than in previous years of drought. Nevertheless, the ministry expects a yield above the long-term average. The West Kazakhstan region has already completed the harvest entirely. Other crops are also delivering: 2.9 million metric tons of vegetables, 2.5 million metric tons of potatoes, and 2.3 million metric tons of melons have been harvested. In addition, there are 70,500 metric tons of raw cotton, with a yield of 32 deciton per hectare. The warehouses are also filling up: 4.9 million metric tons of grain have been stored, 20% more than a year ago. Storage capacity stands at 30.5 million metric tons, of which 13.1 million are at licensed grain receiving stations and 17.4 million at the farms themselves. Utilization is thus only 34%; for the time being, there is no threat of a bottleneck as seen in previous record years.
$4 billion for value-added processing
This year’s total cultivated area is 24.2 million hectares. Of this, 15.6 million hectares are devoted to grains and legumes. In parallel with the harvest, Astana is pushing ahead with processing. Six major projects are expected to create capacity for 5.8 million metric tons of grain by 2029. According to Trend, the Ministry of Agriculture estimates the investment volume at 4 billion U.S. dollars. The projects include a corn processing plant operated by Kazkrakhmal in the Turkistan region and a plant operated by the Chinese Fufeng Group in the Zhambyl region. Fufeng processes corn into starch, amino acids, and feed additives. Sultanov also reports progress in the sugar sector: “We are conducting our own work in sugar beet processing. The modernization of the Koksu sugar plant has been completed.” The Taras facility is set to follow the same model. Crop cultivation is also shifting. The area planted with oilseeds grew to 5.2 million hectares, and their share of the total cultivated area rose from 13% to 18%. So far, 2.4 million metric tons have been harvested from 2.4 million hectares. The ministry expects the first-ever harvest of more than 5 million metric tons, surpassing the previous record of 4.3 million metric tons set in 2025. The direction is clear: less raw wheat, more high-margin products.
Exports Depend on Uzbekistan and Afghanistan
The past export season illustrates why the harvest affects the entire region. From September 2025 to July 2026, Kazakhstan exported 13.9 million metric tons of grain and flour, 12.6% more than the previous year. This was reported by the English-language regional newspaper *Times of Central Asia*, citing the Ministry of Agriculture. The largest buyer was Uzbekistan with 5.8 million metric tons, followed by Afghanistan with 2.4 million metric tons. These two markets thus account for about 59% of exports. This concentration remains the weak point of the business model. At the same time, the grain trade fits into the broader picture of the region: Trade in goods among the five Central Asian states grew by 25.4% from January to July. Kazakhstan accounted for 55.9% of shipments, according to the Uzbek research center CERR, as reported by the Times of Central Asia. The expansion of processing is aimed precisely at these neighboring markets. Processed goods fetch higher prices per metric ton and reduce dependence on the raw material cycle. For a landlocked country with long transport routes, this argument carries double weight. Added to this is the weather: 17% of the crops are still standing in the fields. A change in weather in October could further reduce both quantity and quality. Prime Minister Olshas Bektenov therefore ordered that the harvest be secured and that advance financing for the farms be initiated. Whether the new plants will improve the bottom line depends on logistics. Flour and starch require reliable rail capacity heading south. If this succeeds, the drought year of 2026 will prove that Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector is capable of more than just setting records for raw grain.
Source: Trend (Harvest), Trend (Investments), Trend (2025 Balance Sheet), Times of Central Asia (Harvest), Times of Central Asia (Trade), Prime Minister of Kazakhstan (EN) Wlast, Zhaik Press (RU)