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Russia's budget and central bank dominated the day: oil and gas revenues stayed weak in September, the Finance Ministry sharply raised FX and gold purchases, and the Bank of Russia signalled a high-rate path through 2027.
Federal oil and gas tax revenue was 452 billion rubles (about $5.3 billion) in September, 22% below September 2025 and only slightly above August's 424 billion. Refunds to oil companies under the fuel price damper rose to 305.5 billion rubles from 197.3 billion in August, the highest since April 2022. Cumulative January–September revenue is 5.471 trillion rubles, down 17% year on year, and the Finance Ministry has cut its 2026 forecast by 1.34 trillion rubles to 7.58 trillion. The September Urals price of $92.08 per barrel, reported by the Economy Ministry, will only reach the budget from October because of the tax-payment lag, which matters for fiscal and ruble expectations.
Source: Kommersant, 5 Oct 2026
Under the fiscal rule, the ministry will spend 279.42 billion rubles (about $3.3 billion) on foreign currency and gold between 7 October and 6 November. That is 12.7 billion rubles a day, against 2.5 billion a day in the previous period, when it bought 55.6 billion rubles in total. The ministry estimates additional October oil and gas revenue at 289.46 billion rubles. Larger purchases add demand for foreign currency and are a factor for ruble exchange-rate planning.
Source: Vedomosti, 5 Oct 2026
Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said the Bank of Russia's baseline forecast assumes inflation stabilises at target with an annual average key rate of 10.5–12.5% in 2027. The rate would return to neutral, which the bank puts at 7.5–8.5%, in 2029, when the budget returns to a zero structural primary deficit. He also said 2026 GDP growth will be "slightly lower" than last year's, citing full employment and temporarily lost production and logistics capacity. The bank cut its 2027 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.3% in September. Borrowing costs for foreign-owned subsidiaries in Russia are likely to stay high.
Source: Vedomosti and Kommersant, 5 Oct 2026
Anton Siluanov said the bill, now in the State Duma, includes a mechanism to smooth tax payments when price spikes sharply raise a company's liability in a single year. The Finance Ministry submitted the amendments on 24 September; they cover non-ferrous metals, gold and fertiliser producers. Experts cited by Vedomosti estimate budget revenue of 100–200 billion rubles ($1.2–2.4 billion). In April, Gazprombank analysts warned the tax would cut listed companies' combined net profit by about 10%, or 450–500 billion rubles. Exporters in the affected sectors should expect higher but more predictable tax bills.
Source: Vedomosti, 5 Oct 2026
A presidential order permits UniCredit to reorganise Unicredit Bank and allows transactions for 100% of its shares without further approvals. In May the group said it planned to spin off part of the business under its own control and sell the remainder to a private investor from the UAE. UniCredit expects completion in the first half of 2027, subject to a binding agreement, asset separation and regulatory approvals. The order removes one legal hurdle for the exit of a major European bank from Russia.
Source: Forbes Russia, 5 Oct 2026