The “Klepach Case” – A Review

Author: Klaus Dormann

On the evening of Sunday, August 16, the TASS news agency released the following press release from the state-owned development company VEB.RF: “Andrey Klepach is no longer the chief economist of VEB.RF. His successor will be appointed shortly. The candidate has already been selected.”

TASS added the following for further information: “Klepach assumed the position of chief economist at VEB.RF and deputy chairman of the group’s board in 2014, after stepping down from his role as deputy minister of economic development responsible for macroeconomic policy.”

Why did the prominent economist fall from grace? Klepach himself remains silent

TASS did not disclose why Klepach is no longer the chief economist of the state development corporation VEB.RF. When asked by the business newspaper “Vedomosti,” a VEB.RF spokesperson declined to comment on the reasons for Klepach’s departure.

Vedomosti spoke with Klepach himself and reported: “Klepach confirmed to Vedomosti in a private conversation that he no longer works for VEB. He did not want to elaborate on the reasons. The economist currently has no specific plans regarding his future employment. ‘We’ll see what the future brings,’ he added.”

“The Bell”: A speech by Klepach in May was the trigger

The Russian-language Telegram channel “The Bell” reported on the reasons for Klepach’s departure as early as Sunday (August 16), stating that he had been dismissed on Sunday after an article in the “Moscow Times” about a speech Klepach gave in May was widely circulated in Russian media on Saturday. “The Bell” cites information from two of Klepach’s acquaintances.

In a speech in May at an event at the Nikitsky Club of the Moscow Stock Exchange, Klepach reportedly said that Russia would not be able to survive a protracted conflict with the West. He predicted a “social crisis” in Russia.

According to one of “The Bell’s” sources, VEB.RF CEO Igor Shuvalov fired his chief economist, Klepach, “on orders from above.” The second source confirmed that the dismissal was related to Klepach’s speech in May.

Klepach later confirmed his dismissal to Forbes but did not give a reason for it. This was reported by Deutsche Welle’s Russian Service.

What émigré journalist Boris Grozovsky reports on the “Klepach case”

An in-depth article by Boris Grozovsky on istories.media provides interesting background information on the termination of Klepach’s employment at VEB.RF. Grozovsky, who emigrated from Russia in 2022, is a freelance journalist. He contributes to the media project “About the Country and the World” (О стране и мире; YouTube video featuring Grozovsky). He is also the author of the Telegram channel “t.me/EventsAndTexts” and serves as a “correspondent on Russian media and society” for the Washington-based “Wilson Center.”

Who is Andrey Klepach?

Grozovsky knows Klepach personally. He reports:

“Just under a quarter-century ago, in 2002–2003, when I was reporting on macroeconomics for the newspaper ‘Vedomosti,’ I spoke with Klepach more often than I did with my parents. About three times a week. GDP growth, industrial growth, household income, capital outflows, the budget, taxes, interest rates—Klepach was constantly calculating scenarios and interpreting statistical data. If you wanted to understand the significance of economic news, “you called Klepach.” And he would patiently explain it and share his calculations with me.

After the 1998 economic crisis, Klepach founded the “Development Center” (part of the Higher School of Economics since 2009). Government officials, businesses, and journalists used his analyses to understand statistics, perform specific calculations, justify necessary measures, and outline the individual steps. Klepach’s team identified trends in the data that remained hidden to others.

In 2004, Klepach joined the civil service and took over as head of the Department of Macroeconomics at the Ministry of Economic Development. Minister German Gref needed convincing arguments and precise analyses to drive his reforms forward; Klepach was able to provide them.”

Klepach’s Move to VEB in the Summer of 2014

According to Grozovsky, Klepach’s economic policy orientation shifted over the course of his work at the ministry:

“Eleven years of work at the Ministry of Economic Development shifted Klepach’s economic policy views toward a more state-friendly orientation. He increasingly leaned toward dirigisme (the state’s selection of priority development areas and their promotion through budget subsidies, preferential loans, public procurement, etc.).

Therefore, I was by no means surprised when, in the summer of 2014, following the annexation of Crimea, Klepach moved to VEB, one of the most important state instruments for economic development. There, he became chief economist and deputy chairman of the board and subsequently founded the VEB Institute (essentially an analysis department), whose board of trustees he headed.”

Grozovsky describes the role of the state-owned VEB.RF in the Russian economy as follows:

“The VEB never operated as a regular bank, but instead granted loans to individuals designated by the government, who often became insolvent. Through the VEB, the government supported the development of the Sukhoi Superjet and AvtoVAZ, the hydropower and petrochemical industries, the terminal in Ust-Luga and the Svesda super-shipyard near Vladivostok, the Olympic facilities in Sochi, and, of course, companies in the defense industry. All of these projects received state funding through VEB on more favorable terms than those offered by commercial banks. It is no coincidence that the vast majority of these projects belonged not to just anyone, but to the right people: Putin’s friends, state-owned enterprises, and the top performers on the Russian Forbes list.”

Where did Klepach deliver his controversial speech?

Grozovsky provides the following summary of information regarding Klepach’s speech at the “Nikitsky Club” and its subsequent publication:

The Nikitsky Club, where Klepach delivered the presentation in May that led to the end of his career three months later, is a rather remarkable organization. Founded a quarter-century ago, the club is funded by the Moscow Stock Exchange. The lecture series takes place roughly every two months; 145 have been held to date. About two dozen experts are invited to each event. The lecture and the subsequent discussion are “transcribed,” published on the club’s website, and distributed via a mailing list to government agencies, socio-political institutions, business associations, research institutes, media outlets, and libraries.

As the roughly 70-page publication of the Nikitsky Club’s event featuring Klepach shows, the audience “enjoyed” Klepach’s presentation, according to Grozovsky. Regarding the course of the discussion following Klepach’s lecture on May 21, he notes: Klepach’s “rebellion” met with little opposition. Only Leonid Grigoriev (Higher School of Economics) mildly contradicted Klepach. He argued that economic performance in the fifth year of the war was outstanding, given the sanctions. An end to the war, on the other hand, would bring many problems, which is why it is, in a sense, easier to continue the war—which is, after all, what Putin is doing.

The transcript of Klepach’s lecture and the subsequent discussion was published in the Nikitsky Club’s series “Russia in the Global Context,” though, according to BR24, not until the end of July:

Nikitsky Club: Nikitsky Club’s public discussion series “Russia in the Global Context,” Issue 145; Editor: Natalia Rumyantseva; Lecture by A. N. Klepach, Chief Economist of Vnesheconombank, as part of a Nikitsky Club session followed by a discussion on May 21, 2026: Russia’s Economy and Geopolitical Challenges, July 2026

“The Insider” published extensive excerpts from Klepach’s speech and the discussion, in Russian and English.

When did the public first take notice of Klepach’s speech?

On August 13, journalist Pavel Pryanikov published numerous quotes from Klepach taken from the Nikitsky Club’s publication, and the following day he also posted excerpts on his channel “Tolkovatel” (Толкователь; https://t.me/tolk_tolk)

On August 14, the Russian-language edition of the “Moscow Times” (which is blocked online in Russia, according to Wikipedia) also published a compilation of Klepach’s quotes under the headline:

“The Kremlin’s most important state bank predicts Russia’s defeat in the economic war of attrition against the West.”

Klepach was subsequently dismissed within the next two days, according to Grozovsky.

Regarding Klepach’s reaction to the events, Grozovsky comments: “The 67-year-old economist reportedly feels no regret: After 22 years in public service, he longs for more freedom.”

Ben Aris: The word “defeat” did not appear in Klepach’s speech

Ben Aris, founder and editor-in-chief of Intellinews, pointed out in a commentary on the Klepach case on August 17 that Klepach had expressed himself “in a much more nuanced way” at the Nikitsky Club than the “Moscow Times” article had conveyed. Aris argues as follows:

“The remarks were neither new nor secret. Klepach had made them on May 21 at a meeting of the Nikitsky Club, the Moscow Stock Exchange’s discussion forum, and the minutes had been available on the club’s website ever since.

It wasn’t until August 14 that they became public, when the Russian-language edition of the *Moscow Times* published excerpts under the headline that the Kremlin’s most important state bank had predicted Russia’s ‘defeat’ in an economic ‘war of attrition’ against the West. Russian media then picked up the story. Two days later, Klepach was fired.

Although the word “defeat” appears in the headline, it did not appear in Klepach’s speech. He did not predict a collapse. His forecast was survival, decline, and ultimately difficulties—a much more nuanced statement than the report portrays.”

Ben Aris reports on Klepach’s remarks regarding the prospects for the Russian economy:

“ ‘Whatever we do with our economy, it will survive. In that sense, there is no critical point from an economic perspective,’ Klepach explained. The losses lie elsewhere: investment has declined, and there is no growth, let alone productivity growth.

“We’re falling behind. We’re losing both the technological and economic competition on the world stage,” he continued. “And, as I’ve already said, we’re not only losing to China and the United States—in some respects, we’re also losing to Ukraine, as unpleasant as that is for me.”

The Ukrainian economy is partially destroyed, and its demographic trends are catastrophic, Klepach said. The country continues to rely on Western funds: Aid payments for Kyiv’s military and civilian expenditures amount to nearly half of Russia’s total state budget, and the total aid is many times higher than Russia’s capital outflow.

“We are financing the world, and the world is financing Ukraine,” he said.

In the Nikitsky Club publication, Klepach’s remarks in response to a question from N.I. Ivanova, head of the Research Department for Science and Innovation at IMEMO RAS, can be found on pages 33 and 34.

russland.capital: Klepach said: “Russia is surviving, but falling behind”

The German online newspaper russland.capital analyzed Klepach’s assessments of the Russian economy’s development in even greater detail. It states:

“Klepach’s assessment differed significantly from the doomsday predictions that, since the start of the war, have repeatedly foretold an imminent collapse of the Russian economy. He expressly does not expect such a collapse. The Russian economy, he said, is resilient and will survive.

Yet this is precisely where the sharpness of his statement lies: survival is far from the same as success.

Following the high growth rates of 2023 and 2024, Russian growth is projected to have declined significantly as early as 2025. Under the conditions of an ongoing war, sanctions, high interest rates, and—in the future—a tighter fiscal policy, Klepatsch believes that sustained growth of more than two to two and a half percent is virtually unattainable. For 2027, he even expects growth of only one to one and a half percent.

As a result, Russia will continue to fall further behind not only the U.S. and China but also the global economy as a whole. Investment is declining, the civilian industrial sector is stagnating, and the economy remains structurally weak in the areas of mechanical engineering, microelectronics, and capital goods.”

What Klepatsch Said About the “War of Attrition” with Ukraine

According to russland.capital, Klepatsch’s assessment of Russia’s conflict with Ukraine was “particularly significant.” Klepatsch reportedly criticized Russia for succumbing to the illusion that the Ukrainian economy would eventually collapse. According to Klepatsch, this has not happened so far and will not happen in the future as long as Western countries continue to finance Kyiv.

russland.capital also reports on Klepatsch’s remarks:

“We will not win the competition in this war of attrition,” Klepatsch stated. Russia is losing economically and technologically not only to China and the U.S., but “in some respects also to Ukraine.”

He did not deny the destruction of the Ukrainian economy or its dependence on Western aid. Rather, his argument was coldly economic: Russia must bear most of its military and economic costs on its own, while Ukraine is backed by the financial resources of a large part of the Western world.”

The greater danger is “social”

russland.capital also points out that Klepatsch warned of a social crisis in Russia:

“Klepatsch warned against confusing economic stability with social stability. The economy could withstand sanctions and war expenditures, while social tensions were nevertheless building up domestically.

He cited declining investment, low productivity growth, rising inequality, and the widening gap between wages and pensions. The incomes of small and medium-sized enterprises are also coming under pressure. At the same time, many citizens believe the quality of health care is deteriorating.

Such a process need not necessarily end in a classic economic crisis. Rather, Klepatsch drew parallels to the February Revolution of 1917 and the collapse of the Soviet Union: social upheavals could begin precisely when the economic system still appears to be functioning on the surface and hardly anyone expects an immediate collapse.”

russland.capital: “It wasn’t the analysis that was new—it was the fact that it was made public”

Regarding the sequence of events in the “Klepach case,” russland.capital reaches conclusions similar to those of Ben Aris:

“What is remarkable is not so much what Klepach said, but rather when his words suddenly became a problem. The lecture was not a clandestine opposition speech. It took place in an established discussion forum with the participation of numerous Russian scholars and was subsequently published in full.

For nearly three months, nothing happened. It was only when The Moscow Times singled out certain statements on August 14 and other media outlets picked them up that Klepach lost his position two days later.

It wasn’t the analysis that was new—it was the fact that it was made public.”

Sergei Guriev: “There is a certain division at the very top.”

Sergei Guriev, dean of the London Business School, also commented on the “Klepach case” in a recent Newsweek interview. Guriev served as rector of the New Economic School (NES) in Moscow from 2004 to 2013 before emigrating.

“That was a very interesting public statement,” Guriev said in the interview, according to op-online.de, referring to Klepach’s speech. He pointed out that German Gref, the head of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, has also repeatedly warned of stagnation in Russia’s war economy. Guriev says: “There is a certain division at the very top.”

Regarding Klepach’s dismissal, Guriev said: “Putin doesn’t like it when someone who works for the government says, ‘We’re on the wrong path.’” Such negative statements could undermine the image Putin wants to project to U.S. President Donald Trump—namely, that Moscow is winning the war. Putin is convinced: “Yes, the Western economy is larger, but the West is soft, and Western citizens are not prepared for hardship—Russians are prepared for hardship.”

What Pavel Pryanikov, the “discoverer” of Klepach’s speech, now fears

Journalist Pavel Pryanikov, who was the first to report on the publication of Klepach’s speech, commented on the sequence of events in the “Klepach case” on his channel Interpreter on August 17 as follows:

“VEB’s chief economist, Andrei Klepach, was fired for his candid remarks about the present and future of the country’s economy.

Apparently, I was the first to pick up on this topic. On August 13, I published texts with my comments on my platforms Sponsor, Boosti, and Patreon. On August 14, I shared some of his quotes on my channels. And then it all started.

Our media landscape is generally disinterested and sluggish (unfortunately, even economic reporting is moving in this direction, even though it used to play a pioneering role). Now I regret that Klepach’s quotes would likely have gone unnoticed—and he would still be the chief economist at VEB—had I not published them.

Now I also fear for the future of the Nikitsky Club at the Moscow Stock Exchange, led by Alexander Privolov. I hope it won’t be disbanded as well. I’ve regularly attended the club’s meetings over the past 10–12 years, and for me personally, that would be a great loss.”

Recommended Reading

Dismissal of VEB Chief Economist Andrey Klepach

• 24smi.org; Alexey Kovalsky: Biography of Andrey Klepach, updated daily
• stories.media: Boris Grozovsky (columnist, author of the Telegram channel “Events And Texts”): What VEB’s chief economist said and what his dismissal means. Technocrats see all the damage caused by the war but do nothing; Aug. 20, 26
• Four Feathers: Why Igor Shuvalov Fired Andrey Klepach; Aug. 19, 2026
• Radio Liberty, Mark Krutov: “You Can’t Lie to Yourself.” Bloggers on the dismissal of Andrey Klepach, Aug. 19, 26
• VšĮ SOTA media, Lithuania (designated an “undesirable organization” in the Russian Federation): Klepach’s Solar and Lunar Research: How the VEB Deputy Chairman Lost His Mind, Aug. 19, 26
• The Insider: “The economy will hold up, but we’ll face a social crisis when no one expects it”—the report that led to the dismissal of VEB.RF’s chief economist; quotes from Klepach’s speech in Russian and English, August 18, 2026
• Institute for the Study of War (ISW); Washington: Toplines: Russian state-owned bank Vnesheconombank (VEB) fired Chief Economist Andrey Klepach…, August 18, 2026
• Frankfurter Rundschau; Tim Krüger: “Creeping Impoverishment”: The Kremlin Fired Its Top Economist Because of This Unflinching Analysis, August 18, 2026
• russland.capital: The economist who spoke too plainly, August 18, 2026
• Intellinews; Ben Aris: Russia’s state development bank sacks chief economist over a speech he gave in May, August 17, 2026
• Joe Blogs: Russia Warned. Andrei Klepach, chief economist at the state-owned development bank VEB.RF and former deputy minister of the economy, warned that Russia could not simply assume it would win a protracted war of attrition; video, 16 min., Aug. 17, 26
• Current Time TV, founded by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; Alexey Alexandrov: Why was economist Andrei Klepach fired from the state-owned bank VEB? “If you tell the truth about what is happening in Russia, you will be fired from government agencies.” Economist Igor Lipsits comments on the dismissal of Andrei Klepach; August 17, 26
• Alexandra Prokopenko, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, in conversation with Vladislav Gorin on the Meduza podcast “What Happened” (in Russian): VEB’s chief economist was fired because of his forecast. Is Putin actually losing the war of attrition? What is Klepach’s standing in government and business circles? Could he have been dismissed on Putin’s orders? Is Klepach correct in his assessment of Russia’s defeat, and how close is the economy to collapse? Video, 54 min., August 17, 2026
• The Guardian, Pyotr Sauer: Senior Russian banker fired after scathing speech on wartime economy. Andrei Klepach of VEB said Russia’s economy was falling behind China, the U.S., and “in some respects, Ukraine”; August 17, 2026
• Merkur.de; Clara Dzemla: “We’re Falling Behind”: Chief Economist Sees Russia’s Economy on the Brink of Collapse—Firing Follows, August 17, 2026
• TAZ; Mathias Brüggmann: Economic crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. Russian economist predicts defeat—and is fired, August 17, 2026
• IT BOLTWISE: VEB.RF Fires Economist Andrej Klepatsch: Doubts About Victory in the War in Ukraine, August 17, 2026
• Der Tagesspiegel: After a “call from above”: Top Moscow economist predicts Russia’s defeat—and is promptly fired, August 17, 2026
• FAZ, dpa; Moscow: Economist Predicts Russia’s Defeat—Fired, August 16, 2026
• BR24; Peter Jungblut: “We’re losing to Ukraine”: Did Putin Have Star Economist Fired? Because he expressed criticism of Russia’s prospects in the war, Andrei Klepach, chief economist at the state-owned Russian Bank for Foreign Economic Affairs (VEB), lost his job. This is causing great unease: “Independent expertise is being banned.” BR24 Mastodon on August 16, 2026
• Meduza, Julia Starostina: Russia’s economy is growing faster than expected. It probably won’t last. August 18, 2026
• Meduza: Russia’s largest state development corporation fires Andrei Klepach, its chief economist, for stating in May that Moscow is losing its war of attrition with the West and losing it “in some ways” to Ukraine; August 17, 2026
• Kommersant.ru: Vedomosti reported that Klepach had been dismissed from his post as chief economist at VEB.RF; August 17, 2026
• The Moscow Times, Russian Service: Opinions: Aaron Lea and Boruch Taskin: The Kremlin won’t forgive this; Aug. 17, 2026
• The Moscow Times, Russian Service: VEB’s chief economist predicted Russia’s transition to a “partially mobilized” economy; August 16, 2026
• Forbes.ru; Arpine Asatryan, Georgy Peremitin: Andrey Klepach Resigned as Chief Economist of VEB.RF; August 16, 2026
• Vedomosti.ru: Andrey Klepach resigned as chief economist of VEB.RF; August 16, 2026
• The Moscow Times: VEB Chief Economist Fired After Warning Russia Cannot Win ‘War of Attrition’ – The Bell, August 16, 2026
• Deutsche Welle, Russian Service; Michael Rostand: VEB Economist Fired After Negative Economic Forecast, with a copy of The Bell article; Aug. 16, 2026
• The Bell; https://t.me/thebell_io/38729: VEB.RF fired Chief Economist Andrei Klepach over a speech in which he predicted Russia’s defeat in a war of attrition and a social crisis, August 16, 2026
• Novaya Gazeta Europa: VEB fired its chief economist because he had predicted a future social crisis and Russia’s defeat in a “war of attrition” against the West. The report was picked up by the media yesterday; Aug. 16, 2026; VEB’s chief economist said Russia would not win a “war of attrition” against the West, August 15, 2026
• The Moscow Times, Russian Service: The Kremlin’s most important state-owned bank predicts Russia’s defeat in the economic war of attrition against the West, August 14, 26
• Nikitsky Club: Nikitsky Club public discussion series “Russia in the Global Context,” Issue 145; Editor: Natalia Rumyantseva; Presentation by A. N. Klepach, Chief Economist of Vnesheconombank, during a Nikitsky Club session followed by a discussion: “Russia’s Economy and Geopolitical Challenges” on May 21, 26, published in late July 2026

German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Trade

• Chinese Oil Imports: Russia Overtakes Saudi Arabia, August 18, 26
• Russian Ruble: Summer Plunge Following Spring Rally, August 11, 26
• Despite Rising Inflation Expectations: Central Bank Cuts Key Interest Rate to 14%, July 28, 26
• Fuel crisis: Top exporter Russia relies on imports, July 21, 26; Gasoline crisis in Russia, June 30, 26

Podcasts

• “Ronzheimer” Podcast: Putin’s Most Important Conquest Is Collapsing. With Andrey Gurkov. Paul Ronzheimer speaks with Andrey Gurkov about the consequences of Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and Wildberries’ logistics centers. Is a banking crisis looming? How is the budget deficit evolving? Is the Russian economy reaching a critical point? 44 min., Aug. 21, 26

Current economic trends; the economy as a whole

• Op-online.de in cooperation with newsweek.com; Matthew Cannon and Dave Siminoff: Gasoline shortages, inflation, drone attacks: Putin is losing public support ahead of the election. The state of the Russian economy is now a “burden” for Putin, according to Sergei Guriev; Aug. 23, 26
• russland.capital: Russia’s investments are becoming more domestic—but not necessarily more private, August 20, 26
• Politcom.ru; Nikita Maslennikov: The Budget Deficit in the Context of Macroeconomic Dynamics, August 20, 2026
• Vedomosti; Elena Mukhametshina: What Vladimir Putin said at the meeting of the Council for National Projects. The president devoted considerable attention to the state of regional budgets; August 20, 2026
• Kommersant, Maria Ezhovkina: Putin on Economic Growth, Regional Support, and a New Investment Cycle. Putin: Terrorist Attacks Are Affecting Growth Rates in Russia; Putin Described Russia’s Economic Development as “Modest but Positive,” Aug. 19, 2026
• Finam.ru: Many megaprojects in Russia are nearing completion, and a new investment cycle must be launched, Putin said. The overall growth rate of capital investment has slowed; August 19, 2026
• TASS.ru: Russia’s GDP growth and additional regional support. Statements by Novak and Siluanov, August 19, 2026
• russland.ru video; Russia TV: Putin at the meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects, video, 66 min., Aug. 20, 2026
• Expert.ru; Anastasia Morozova: Analysts warn that GDP growth could be cut in half without reforms; Aug. 19, 2026
• Expert.ru; Dmitri Grinkewitsch, Yakov Timakov: 7 Pillars for a New Economy; Experts Have Proposed a Development Model Based on Private Capital; August 19, 2026
• bne Intellinews; Ben Aris: Russians are not withdrawing money from banks; deposits hit a record high, but the savings boom that fueled them is running out of steam; August 19, 2026
• bne Intellinews, Ben Aris: Kremlin think tank warns Putin: Without reforms, Russia faces growth of just 1.6%; Aug. 19, 2026
• Finam.ru; Natalia Asedova, Post-Analysis: How high will inflation be in Russia, and should we expect an economic slowdown? August 18, 2026
• Meduza: Russia’s economy is growing faster than expected. It probably won’t last. Aug. 18, 2026
• CNBC, Sam Meredith: Russia says its economy is strong. It just fired a top economist who warned otherwise, Aug. 18, 2026

Price Trends

• Raiffeisenbank: The decline in fuel inflation has stopped, August 20, 2026
• Finam.ru; Natalia Asedova, Roundup: How high will inflation be in Russia, and should we expect an economic slowdown? 08/18/26

Wildberries

• AP: Ukraine targets Russia’s economy and morale by attacking an online retailer, August 17, 2026
• Deutsche Welle; Oleg Loginov: Why Kyiv keeps attacking Russian retail giant Wildberries. Ukraine has been striking warehouses belonging to Russia’s largest online marketplace, saying the attacks disrupt, August 16, 2026

Fuel Supply, Energy Sector

• Deutsche Welle; Denis Kisinevskij: Fuel crisis in Russia increases pressure on the Kremlin, Aug. 21, 2026
• BR24, Peter Jungblut: “Not Available”: Can Putin Fix the Gasoline Shortage? August 20, 2026
• Artjockey: Even the government’s most optimistic supporters can hardly ignore the obvious anymore: the second wave of the gasoline crisis; August 19, 26

Foreign Trade, Sanctions

• bne Intellinews; Ben Aris: Russia’s trade surplus rose by 14% to $73.4 billion in the first half of 2026 due to Asian demand; August 17, 2026
• Finam.ru; Victor Grigoriev, Bank of St. Petersburg: Russia’s balance of payments is weakening. Rising imports and a shrinking trade surplus are increasing pressure on the ruble, August 17, 2026
• Profile.ru; Irina Petrova: Kobyakov outlined the conditions for Western companies to return to Russia. Pragmatic partnerships involving technology transfer are possible, August 16, 2026

Political Environment

• CNN; Nathan Hodge: It’s “Black August” in Russia, but Putin is sweeping this summer’s crisis under the rug, August 23, 2026
• Monocle.com; Mark Galeotti: Russia is running out of options—so why is Putin still optimistic? Mounting economic strain and public discontent have yet to persuade the Russian president to change course in Ukraine; August 18, 2026
• bne Intellinews, Ben Aris: Seven out of ten Russians now describe the domestic situation as tense or critical; August 17, 2026