Poland's inflation rises to 4.0%: Fuel prices rise by 36.1%
Poland's inflation rate stood at 4.0% in September, up from 3.4% in August. This was reported by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) in its flash estimate released on September 30. Compared to August, prices rose by 0.7%. This is the highest level since June 2025. It exceeds the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) target range of 2.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Fuel prices are driving the rise
Fuel prices are the main factor. According to GUS, they cost 36.1% more than a year ago, and rose by 9.2% compared to August alone. Electricity, gas, and other fuels rose in price by 4.9%. Food, on the other hand, is 0.5% cheaper than a year ago, though it rose by 0.1% month-over-month.
Analysts at Bank Pekao have calculated what this means. Since February, fuel prices have risen by more than 35%. This accounts for nearly 2 percentage points of total inflation. According to Pekao, core inflation—excluding energy and food—stands at about 3.2%.
The government is trying to counteract this. Its “Ceny Paliwa Niżej” package is intended to lower gasoline prices starting October 3. The effect will be reflected in the October data at the earliest.
Central Bank Keeps Interest Rate at 3.75%
The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) left the benchmark interest rate unchanged on October 7. This marks the fourth consecutive decision with no change. The last cut of 0.25 percentage points dates back to March 5. With inflation at 4.0%, the real interest rate is thus negative.
In its statement, the Council remains noncommittal: “Further decisions by the Council will depend on incoming information regarding the inflation outlook.” Further decisions will therefore depend on new data regarding the inflation outlook. NBP President Adam Glapiński will explain the policy stance on Thursday at 3:00 p.m. during a press conference.
Forecasts vary. Pekao expects 4.5% by year-end and an average of 3.3% for 2026. The bank does not foresee a return to near the target before the third quarter of 2027. ING writes: “We expect preemptive rate hikes in early 2027.” The bank therefore anticipates interest rate hikes of 25 to 50 basis points. PKO Research considers such hikes unnecessary because the shocks are temporary. The consensus among economists is that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2026.
For German exporters and investors, this means that interest rates in Poland will remain stable for the time being, but costs will rise nonetheless. Exporters should review price escalation clauses in supply contracts, as Polish customers are bearing higher energy and transportation costs. Pekao also expects electricity and natural gas rates for households to rise by up to 10% starting in early 2027. Investors with variable-rate złoty loans should plan for interest rate hikes starting in 2027 and secure financing early.
Sources: GUS (PL), NBP/RPP communiqué (PL), Pekao Analizy (EN), ING Bank Śląski (PL), Notes from Poland (EN)
SK, Frankfurt