That is why the Americans are putting pressure on Kazakhstan
Author: Thorsten Gutmann
U.S. President Donald Trump is currently imposing tariffs on many countries. But a look at Central Asia reveals something unusual: Kazakhstan is the only country in the region subject to a 25 percent import tariff—significantly more than its neighbors Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, which pay only 10 percent. In doing so, the U.S. is targeting not only its largest trading partner in Central Asia, but also the most important transit country between China, Russia, and Europe.
Geopolitics Instead of Trade Policy
Officially, Washington justifies the higher tariffs on the grounds of trade and competition policy. Unofficially, however, there is a strategic intent behind this: Kazakhstan serves as a hub for nearly half of China’s trade in Central Asia, exported a record amount to Beijing in 2024, and is closely integrated into Chinese infrastructure and raw materials projects. With $9.3 billion in debt to China and the region’s largest known deposits of rare earths, the country is at the center of the competition for raw materials between East and West.
From the U.S. perspective, it makes sense to exert pressure on Astana to loosen its close ties to Beijing and Moscow. But Washington may be overestimating its own leverage: The U.S. market plays only a minor role for Kazakhstan compared to Russia, China, or the EU. Politically and economically, it is primarily Moscow and Beijing that set the agenda—and their influence is unlikely to be significantly weakened by American punitive tariffs.
As an analysis by the U.S. magazine The National Interest shows, China, for its part, is attempting to further expand its position: During Xi Jinping’s visit to Astana in June 2025, projects worth $24 billion were agreed upon—ranging from solar power plants to urea facilities. The latter are of strategic importance to Beijing: the growing demand for nitrogen fertilizers in Chinese agriculture makes the country dependent on Russian supplies. Kazakhstan could serve as an alternative supplier here—and thereby forge even closer ties with China.
Risk for Investors
For Kazakhstan, U.S. policy poses less of a risk of immediate economic losses than of a geopolitical stress test. The greater threat lies in Trump’s unpredictability—and in the possibility that tariffs or secondary sanctions could escalate.
For companies, Kazakhstan remains an attractive commodities and energy market despite everything. But anyone looking to invest here for the long term must keep a very close eye not only on the balance sheets but also on the geopolitical balance of power between Russia, China, and the U.S.—and be aware that, within this triangle, Washington does not necessarily hold the strongest card.
