Tajikistan: Exports Rise by 65%, Textile Production Plummets by 38%
Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead,” by Thomas Baier
Tajikistan’s textile production plummeted by nearly 38% in the first half of 2026, according to the Tajik news agency Asia-Plus, citing the state statistics agency. At the same time, the country’s exports grew by 65.3% to $1.6 billion. The boom is driven by gold, ores, and raw cotton fiber. Domestic processing is declining.
More Cotton Fiber, Less Fabric
From January through June, the textile and apparel industry produced goods worth 1.216 billion somoni. This corresponds to approximately 131 million U.S. dollars at the current exchange rate of the National Bank of Tajikistan. According to Asia-Plus, cotton fiber production rose, and exports of cotton fiber also increased. Fabric production, on the other hand, fell by just under 38%. The country is thus increasingly selling its cotton abroad in its raw form rather than processing it into fabrics domestically. In the first half of the year, cotton fiber exports totaled 61.9 million U.S. dollars.
The situation had looked better as recently as this spring. The state news agency Khovar reported a 7.3% increase in the textile sector for January through May. According to the report, hosiery production increased fivefold, and cotton fiber processing rose by 60%. This makes the slump in fabrics all the more telling of the gap in the middle of the supply chain: fiber and yarn are growing, but fabrics are lacking. The decline is hitting an industry considered a beacon of hope for industrial policy. Alongside aluminum and gold, cotton is one of the few raw materials that the country produces in large quantities itself.
Export Boom Rests on Gold and Ores
Total exports reached $1.6 billion in the first half of the year. That is $623 million, or 65.3%, more than in the same period last year. Bachriddin Sirodschiddinsoda, director of the Tajik government’s export agency, cited these figures on July 10 in Dushanbe, according to Asia-Plus. Foreign trade turnover rose by 38.3% to $4.38 billion. Precious metals and gemstones generated $513.8 million, while ores and concentrates brought in $385.8 million. Together with raw cotton fiber, unprocessed goods thus accounted for approximately 60% of export revenues. The main buyers were China, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Belgium, and Switzerland.
Industry as a whole is growing strongly. According to the Tajik news portal Avesta, industrial production rose by 14.1% in the first half of the year to 33.77 billion somoni, equivalent to approximately 3.6 billion U.S. dollars. The manufacturing sector grew by 26%, driven by metallurgy and food production. Mining contracted by 6.7%. The textile sector contributed only 1.22 billion somoni, less than one-fifth of the metallurgy sector. The economy as a whole is also performing well: According to the statistics agency, gross domestic product grew by 8.2% in the first half of the year. According to Asia-Plus, the Asian Development Bank forecasts 7.3% growth for 2026. The downside: The more gold and ores drive the balance sheet, the more vulnerable it becomes to price fluctuations on global markets.
A Full Value Chain Remains the Government’s Goal
The government is aware of the problem. According to Asia-Plus, exports are expected to rise to $3.1 billion by 2029, primarily through processed goods. On September 23, the Ministry of Industry is hosting an international textile forum in Dushanbe. According to Khovar, it is seeking “investors looking for full-cycle textile projects: from cotton fiber to the finished product, powered by 98% renewable hydropower.” The model is clear: Uzbekistan has largely phased out the export of raw cotton and now sells yarn, fabrics, and ready-to-wear clothing.
The first steps are already underway. In July, the government launched a textile cluster in partnership with the company Industrial Development Center, as Khovar reports, citing the State Investment Committee. The project is valued at 83.2 million U.S. dollars and is expected to create more than 5,500 jobs. The plan is to cover the entire supply chain, from cotton cultivation through yarn and fabric to finished clothing. However, such projects take years to reach full capacity. In the short term, they do little to alter the heavy reliance on raw materials in exports.
The stakes are high for Tajikistan. The export boom depends on high gold prices and ore shipments to China. If commodity prices fall, one of Central Asia’s smallest economies will lose its economic buffer. Added to this are external risks: According to Asia-Plus, remittances from migrant workers continue to prop up the economy, but disruptions in Russian fuel supplies and problems on southern transport routes are already driving up prices. The textile industry would be the natural second pillar: cotton is grown in the country, hydropower is cheap, and wages are low. Whether investors jump on board will depend on the winter power supply, financing, and legal certainty. The half-year results show that there is still a long way to go from fiber to fabric.
Source: Asia-Plus (EN) National Bank of Tajikistan (EN) Asia-Plus (RU) Avesta (RU) Khovar (RU)