MOL–NIS Deal Still Up in the Air After Hungary's Election

The planned acquisition of a stake in the Serbian oil company NIS by Hungary’s MOL Group is facing new uncertainties following political changes in Hungary. While Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić continues to expect a possible deal, uncertainty is growing regarding the timeline and political conditions of the transaction.

On April 13, Vučić stated on Serbian state television RTS that talks regarding a restructuring of NIS were well advanced. The company is majority-owned by Russian conglomerates and is subject to U.S. sanctions. According to the president, representatives from MOL continued to signal their willingness to sign an agreement in the near future. At the same time, he acknowledged that the negotiations were complex.

Sanctions and Ownership Structure as Key Factors

In October 2025, the United States imposed sanctions on NIS targeting the Russian ownership structure and requiring the withdrawal of Russian capital. In January, Gazprom Neft agreed in principle to sell its 44.9 percent stake. In addition, there is an 11.3 percent stake held by a Gazprom subsidiary. Should the transaction be completed and approved by U.S. authorities, MOL could acquire a majority stake of over 56 percent in NIS.

For its ongoing operations, NIS currently relies on a waiver from U.S. authorities. Among other things, this allows for the continuation of refining activities, imports, and financial transactions. The existing license is initially valid until April 17. The company has already applied for an extension. Vučić expressed his expectation that the license will be extended and noted a deadline for negotiations of May 22.

Political changes increase complexity

Recent political developments in Hungary could alter the context of the negotiations, though this does not automatically spell the end of the project. Observers note that close political coordination between Budapest and Belgrade has played an important role in regional energy projects in the past.

At the same time, government officials in Serbia emphasize that cooperation with Hungary should continue regardless of political personnel changes. Vučić congratulated the new Hungarian President Péter Magyar and underscored the importance of stable bilateral relations.

However, statements from Hungary suggesting potential geopolitical influence in the region led to short-term diplomatic tensions. Vučić rejected such claims, calling them unfounded.

Economic interests remain

Regardless of the political dynamics, MOL’s interest in NIS continues to be viewed as strategically sound. The acquisition would give the Hungarian conglomerate a stronger position in the Southeast European energy market and could contribute to the diversification of supply chains.

At the same time, Serbia and Hungary are pursuing several joint infrastructure projects, including the Belgrade–Budapest high-speed rail line and plans for a new oil pipeline. However, the pace at which these projects are implemented increasingly depends on the political and regulatory framework.

Outcome of Negotiations Remains Uncertain

MOL’s potential acquisition of a stake in NIS thus remains contingent on several factors: approval from U.S. authorities, the progress of talks with existing shareholders, and further political coordination among the involved countries.

While Serbian government officials remain optimistic, analysts view the situation with more nuance. The deal has not fallen through—but its implementation has become more complex and is likely to take longer than originally expected.