Focus on Turkmen Gas
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are shifting the outlook for the global gas market—and bringing Turkmenistan more into the spotlight. Demand for Central Asian gas could grow, particularly in China, but also in Turkey and Europe.
The trigger is uncertainty along key maritime routes. When liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments are restricted by bottlenecks or blockades, land-based supply routes automatically become more attractive.
For China, this means that gas from Central Asia could once again come into sharper focus. President Xi Jinping used the visit of his Turkmen counterpart Berdimuhamedov to Beijing to reaffirm cooperation in the energy sector.
China remains the main customer
Turkmenistan already supplies most of its gas to China. Around 55 billion cubic meters flow annually through three pipeline lines—an expansion to up to 85 billion is planned, but progress is slow.
At the same time, a structural imbalance is emerging: While China’s gas imports from Russia have recently increased significantly, deliveries from Turkmenistan have declined. Experts see this as a strategic move by Beijing to balance different suppliers against one another.
This increases the pressure on Turkmenistan to broaden its export base. For years, there has been talk of a connection to Western markets—particularly via the Caspian Sea toward Azerbaijan and on to Turkey.
Technically, such projects could be implemented relatively quickly. Short offshore connections could utilize existing infrastructure and open up access to European customers.
Europe as a Possible Option
This option is gaining relevance, particularly against the backdrop of uncertain energy flows. Europe continues to seek diversified sources of supply, while central transit corridors are gaining strategic importance.
Whether Turkmenistan will actually take this step remains to be seen. One thing is clear, however: the current situation is changing the rules of the game in the energy market—and opening up new opportunities for the country.
