Cold Weather Boosts Poland's Retail Sector

Poland’s retail sector started the year with an unexpectedly strong increase. In January, sales rose by 4.4 percent in real terms compared with the previous year, significantly exceeding market expectations. Ironically, the main driver was the harsh winter weather.

Sales of textiles, clothing, and shoes saw particularly strong growth: They surged by 17.6 percent year-over-year—nearly three times as much as in December. Analysts attribute this to the unusually cold temperatures. According to ING, after several mild winters, many consumers apparently were not sufficiently equipped with warm clothing.

Other segments also showed a predominantly positive trend. Sales of food, beverages, and tobacco products rose by 4.2 percent, while fuel sales increased by 4.6 percent. Furniture and household appliances rose by 10.5 percent, while pharmaceuticals and cosmetics recorded a 9.6 percent increase.

Car sales and auto parts were an exception: They fell by 4.5 percent in January—the first decline since mid-2023.

Solid Consumption, but Slower Growth

As expected, sales fell significantly month-over-month as the strong Christmas shopping season in December came to an end. On a seasonally adjusted basis, however, there was a moderate increase.

For the year as a whole, economists continue to expect solid consumption growth, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. Bank Pekao forecasts a 3.4 percent increase in private consumption, down from 3.7 percent the previous year. Real income growth is likely to slow, while inflation continues to decline.

The January figures provide little new impetus for monetary policy. Given the easing inflation, the National Bank of Poland is likely to consider another interest rate cut in March.

This article was produced in cooperation with our partner bne intelliNews