$48.5 billion in exports: Kazakhstan's current account balance turns positive

Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”

Kazakhstan’s current account balance showed a surplus of $2.4 billion for the first half of 2026. In the same period last year, there was still a deficit of $3.6 billion, representing a turnaround of $6 billion. The National Bank in Astana released the figures on September 30. The main drivers were goods exports totaling $48.5 billion, an increase of 27.1% compared to approximately $38 billion in the first half of 2025. The current account aggregates trade in goods, services, and income flows with other countries and is considered a key indicator of an economy’s external position.

Exports are growing more than four times as fast as imports

The Kazakh economic portal Kapital.kz quotes Asat Uskenbayev, director of the Balance of Payments Department at the National Bank: “More than 80% of commodity categories are showing positive momentum.” According to the National Bank, higher world market prices for oil, uranium, metals, ores, and grains were the main drivers of exports. These are precisely the raw materials that dominate Kazakhstan’s export basket. In the case of grain, a strong harvest has also contributed: By the end of September, farms had harvested 19.9 million metric tons—faster than in the record year of 2024, as this column recently reported. Imports rose by only 6.2% to $32.3 billion during the same period. The trade surplus thus reached approximately $16 billion, more than double the figure from a year earlier. The second quarter was the deciding factor: It alone generated a current account surplus of $3.2 billion, following a deficit of about $0.8 billion in the first quarter. According to Uskenbajew, growing purchases of intermediate goods and equipment are simultaneously bolstering domestic production capacity.

Import Structure Shifts Toward Capital Goods

Behind the flat import growth lies a structural shift. Imports of intermediate goods rose by 13.8%, while those of capital goods increased by 7.9%. Imports of consumer goods, excluding food, fell by 11.2%, particularly in the categories of cars, clothing, and shoes. According to the English-language newspaper Astana Times, this category has been shrinking since the fourth quarter of 2023. Kazakhstan is thus buying fewer consumer goods abroad but more machinery, equipment, and intermediate goods. For European suppliers of capital goods, this is the key takeaway behind the balance sheet figures. At the same time, the debt burden is declining. According to the National Bank, external debt stands at 56.6% of GDP, 3.3 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. In 2016, the ratio was still 119.1%. A large portion of this consists of intra-group loans from foreign direct investors, not traditional government debt. The public sector holds foreign assets of $130.8 billion, or 39.4% of GDP, offset by liabilities of only $18.6 billion. The country’s net international investment position improved to minus 11.3% of GDP, or $37.5 billion. In 2020, it was still at minus 42.1%. If this trend continues, Kazakhstan will move closer to becoming a net creditor to the rest of the world in the medium term. For an emerging market with high investment needs, this would be a comfortable starting point.

Price-Driven Surplus Remains Vulnerable

The turnaround is driven by prices rather than volumes. If oil and metal prices fall, the balance will quickly shift back. Moreover, economic growth remains modest: According to Central Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov, GDP rose by 4.1% from January to July, driven primarily by the non-commodity sector. By comparison, the regional business newspaper *Times of Central Asia* reports growth of 11.1% for Kyrgyzstan, 8.5% for Uzbekistan, and 8.2% for Tajikistan. Kazakhstan thus remains at the bottom of the growth rankings in Central Asia, despite its significantly improved external balance. Nevertheless, the surplus provides some breathing room for monetary policy. It supports the tenge and, consequently, disinflation: Inflation fell to 9.8% in August, marking the eleventh consecutive month of decline. According to the Kazakh news portal Zakon.kz, food prices rose by 9.5%, other goods by 11.4%, and services by 8.9%. Household inflation expectations fell from 13.4% to 12.1%. According to a statement published by the BIS, Suleimenov attributes this to “the monetary policy stance, the stable tenge exchange rate, and the normalization of consumer demand.” The base interest rate has stood at 16.25% since September 4, down from 16.75% since the end of July. The central bank does not see much room for further cuts. According to Zakon.kz, it raised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 6.5–8.5% and describes the pro-inflationary risks as significant. The next interest rate decision is scheduled for October 23. It will reveal how much confidence the National Bank has in the renewed strength of its external balance. If the surplus holds through the end of the year, Kazakhstan would once again have a buffer against external shocks for the first time in years: more foreign exchange reserves, less debt, and a more stable tenge.

Source: Astana Times, Times of Central Asia, BIS (EN), Kapital.kz, Zakon.kz, National Bank of Kazakhstan (RU)