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A US-Russia diesel arrangement lifted Russian equities and the ruble, the EU adopted its largest sanctions listing since 2022, and the Central Bank tied 2027 rate cuts to fiscal consolidation.
The MosBirzha and RTS indices opened up 3.3% on Monday after US President Donald Trump said he had agreed with Vladimir Putin that Russia will supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to US and international markets immediately, a further 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes after that. The yuan fell to 12.59 rubles in early trade as the ruble strengthened, and the official dollar rate was set at 84.90 rubles. The terms come from Trump's statement, and Interfax reports that OFAC has issued a license permitting Russian-origin diesel transactions, including imports into the US, until 7 April 2027. For foreign traders, this is the first concrete easing channel for Russian fuel exports.
Source: Interfax, 12 Oct 2026
EU foreign ministers approved nearly 1,600 new listings, according to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who said more than half relate to the ballistic missile supply chain. Targets include developer Samolet and its CEO Anna Akinshina, the owner of carmaker GAZ, Admiralty Shipyards and Zvezda shipyard. The EU cites alleged use of North Korean labour at Samolet's Vladivostok sites; Samolet says it continues to operate as planned. Counterparties of the listed companies face asset-freeze and dealing risk.
Source: Forbes Russia, 12 Oct 2026
Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said the planned cut in the structural primary deficit in 2027, and its return to zero by 2029, is an important but not the only condition for room to ease policy. The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14% on 11 September and sees annual inflation at 6-7% in its baseline, returning to 4% in 2027. The next rate meeting is on 23 October. Borrowers should not expect cuts to be driven by monetary factors alone.
Source: Kommersant, 12 Oct 2026
The Finance Ministry reported a September surplus of 0.6 trillion rubles, the second in a row, cutting the nine-month deficit to 5.2 trillion rubles (about $61 billion, 2.2% of GDP). Non-oil-and-gas revenue rose 18.8% year on year to 24.2 trillion rubles, with VAT up 27.4% after the rate increase. Oil and gas revenue fell 17.2% to 5.5 trillion rubles. The ministry now expects a 2026 deficit of 7.3 trillion rubles (3.2% of GDP) against an initial plan of 3.8 trillion rubles.
Source: Kommersant, 12 Oct 2026
Customs data seen by Vedomosti show exports rose 14.2% to $304.2 billion and imports rose 13.1% to $201.3 billion. Minerals made up 56.1% of exports. Asia accounted for 75.5% of turnover, which grew 18.1% year on year. Europe held 17.5%, with turnover up 4%, while trade with the Americas fell 4.9%. Russia's trade is tilting further toward Asian partners.
Source: Vedomosti, 12 Oct 2026