What Kommersant, RBC, Vedomosti, Interfax and Forbes Russia report — selected and summarized in English every morning, for readers who don't read Russian. Analysis-grade sourcing, no wire rehash. Data context in the Russia Terminal. Also: Central Asia Digest · Caucasus wire.
Russia's first diesel cargo for the United States and the three-year budget deficit lead the day, alongside Chinese oil purchases, the Power of Siberia 2 talks and monetary growth.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the first 40,000-tonne diesel tanker will leave for the United States on 22 October, with further cargoes to follow; the contract is at its final stage. Novak said Russia is restoring diesel exports only within refinery capacity and expects to reach full volumes by year-end. Putin said global diesel prices fell 5–6% after both sides announced the shipments, and that Russia could supply large volumes of fertilizer to the US. For foreign traders, the statements point to a restart of fuel and fertilizer flows, though volumes remain limited by refining capacity.
Source: Interfax, 21 Oct 2026
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov called the planned average deficit of about 2% of GDP over the next three years small, citing an average of about 5% of GDP in G20 countries. The draft sets the 2027 deficit at 5.443 trillion rubles (about $66 billion), or 2.2% of GDP, against 3.186 trillion rubles (1.2% of GDP) in the current budget law. The 2028 deficit is projected at 5.12 trillion rubles (1.9%) and 2029 at 5.245 trillion rubles (1.9%). The wider deficit implies higher borrowing needs and continued pressure on fiscal policy.
Source: Interfax, 20 Oct 2026
According to Argus, the average discount of Urals delivered to Chinese ports to ICE Brent fell from $4.30 per barrel in July to $2.75 in August. CREA estimates the August Urals discount at about $22 per barrel on an FOB basis; the two figures are not directly comparable. In January–August, China's purchases of Russian oil rose 18.1% year on year to 77.7 million tonnes, and 33.1% in value to $44.7 billion. Russia's share of Chinese oil imports reached 24.2% by volume.
Source: Kommersant, 21 Oct 2026
Novak said Gazprom and China's CNPC could reach agreements on the Power of Baikal pipeline by the end of the year. The route, formerly called Power of Siberia 2, is planned at about 50 billion cubic metres per year, against 38 billion for Power of Siberia. Gazprom signed a legally binding memorandum on the project in 2025. Commercial terms remain under negotiation.
Source: Interfax, 21 Oct 2026
The M2 money supply rose 0.1% in September to 137.6 trillion rubles, the Bank of Russia reported. Annual growth increased to 13.3% from 12.8% a month earlier. Broad money excluding currency revaluation grew 11.3% year on year, down from 11.8%. Cash in circulation rose 21.6% year on year.
Source: Interfax, 20 Oct 2026
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