What Kommersant, RBC, Vedomosti, Interfax and Forbes Russia report — selected and summarized in English every morning, for readers who don't read Russian. Analysis-grade sourcing, no wire rehash. Data context in the Russia Terminal. Regional wires: Central Asia · Caucasus.
Inflation expectations hit a multi-year high three days before the central bank's rate decision, the State Duma passed laws hitting departed foreign investors and the diesel market, and banking-sector liquidity strain reached its deepest level since March 2022.
Household inflation expectations rose to 14.7% in July, up 2.3 percentage points from June, according to the inFOM survey commissioned by the Bank of Russia. Observed annual inflation climbed from 14.2% to 15.1%; the last higher expectations reading was 14.8% in December 2021. A 7% rise in gasoline prices in June fed the increase, and deputy governor Alexei Zabotkin said the regulator will factor fuel costs into its key rate decision on July 24 — a signal that monetary easing is off the table for now.
Source: Kommersant, 21 Jul 2026
The State Duma passed a law on July 21 allowing courts to deny "unfriendly"-country investors who left Russia after February 22, 2022 the right to exercise buyback options on companies they sold. Grounds include public support for sanctions, a sale price at least 25% below market, or critical investments made by the new owner; blocked investors have one year to seek compensation, which the Moscow Region Arbitration Court can reduce or refuse. Lawyers polled by Kommersant say the law's main function is negotiating leverage for current owners — and a further signal to foreign investors that contractual rights in Russia are no longer guaranteed in full.
Source: Kommersant, 21 Jul 2026
The banking sector's liquidity deficit reached 2.414 trillion rubles (roughly $31 billion) on July 20, the highest since March 16, 2022, before easing to 2.355 trillion rubles a day later, Bank of Russia data show. The deficit has persisted since February: nine key rate cuts over the past year pushed savers out of deposits — term-deposit outflows hit 280.5 billion rubles in May — while demand for cash rose and banks' OFZ holdings grew by 2.9 trillion rubles, up 17.6% year over year. Analysts quoted by Forbes say banks are still positioned for further easing, though with slower steps and possible pauses.
Source: Forbes.ru, 21 Jul 2026
Russia's current account surplus rose to $8.1 billion in May from $6.2 billion in April, bringing the January–May total to $27 billion, up 24% year over year, Bank of Russia data show. Gazprombank estimates exports of goods and services grew 8.8% month over month to $46.9 billion in May, with imports up 5.1% to $37.1 billion. Analysts polled by Kommersant expect the external position to deteriorate in the second half as export prices decline while import demand keeps rising — a combination they say will weigh on the ruble.
Source: Kommersant, 21 Jul 2026
The State Duma passed provisions introducing an import damper for diesel in second and third readings, extending to diesel the subsidy mechanism already in place for gasoline. The compensation coefficient for diesel imported from Belarus rises to 0.9, payments will cover middle distillates sold on the domestic market from July 2026 through June 2027, and the mechanism operates alongside the current export ban. The government approved the measure on July 17; it is designed to pull imported diesel onto the domestic market if shortages emerge.
Source: Kommersant, 21 Jul 2026