The central corridor is once again taking center stage

The Middle Corridor, which runs through Central Asia and the Caucasus, is regaining importance. While the northern routes are hampered by sanctions against Russia and southern connections are becoming more uncertain due to the tense situation in the Middle East, this axis is once again coming into focus as the central land link between Europe and Asia.

Turkey is attempting to transform a border crossing with Armenia—which has been closed for decades—into a strategic gateway for trade between the two continents. Ankara aims to position itself as a reliable logistics hub amid growing disruptions to traditional transport routes.

At the Alican border crossing, which has been closed for 32 years, Turkish authorities have already begun installing passport control systems. They hope to reopen the crossing soon. This would also clear the way for a new road and rail corridor through the Caucasus. No specific date has been set yet, but the Turkish side has indicated that it expects the crossing to open soon.

The economic stakes are high. Trade between Europe and Asia amounts to around three trillion U.S. dollars annually, of which about 90 percent has so far been handled by sea. The fastest sea route takes about 40 days.

The Middle Corridor could significantly shorten this time. According to industry representatives, the route connecting China to Europe via the Caucasus and Turkey could reduce transit time to just 12 to 15 days.

Two Projects at the Heart of Turkey’s Strategy

Two major projects are currently at the center of Turkey’s plans. The first is the so-called Development Road, a planned road and rail network intended to connect the Gulf to Europe via Iraq and Turkey. The second is the TRIPP project, a U.S.-backed connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan via Armenian territory.

The Development Road would have the advantage of bypassing both the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. However, the project is still in an early planning stage. It would require investments in the billions and pass through areas in Iraq that remain challenging in terms of infrastructure and politics.

TRIPP, on the other hand, appears to be further along. The project was presented at the White House in February alongside a preliminary peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is also intended to help further defuse the decades-long conflict between the two countries. Turkey has announced that it will open its border with Armenia as soon as a final peace agreement is signed.

According to reports from Azerbaijan, construction work is already underway on the Azerbaijani side, with Turkish companies also involved. At the same time, Turkey is pushing ahead with the expansion of its own rail infrastructure.

If the Middle Corridor does indeed become fully operational, experts say freight volumes could rise significantly. Between 2021 and 2025, the volumes transported have already tripled. In the long term, capacity could grow from the current level of around 5 million tons to as much as 20 million tons per year. However, several bottlenecks are still holding back development: slow ferry connections across the Caspian Sea, differing track gauges, and cumbersome customs procedures.

JPMorgan therefore recently described the Middle Corridor as a route “that everyone needs, but few use.”

Central Asia’s raw materials are moving closer to global markets

With better connectivity via the Middle Corridor, Central Asia’s raw material exports could also gain in importance. At a time when supply chains are being diversified and alternative sources of supply sought, interest in the region’s resources is growing.

A freely accessible dataset from the Oxus Society estimates the raw material exports of the five Central Asian republics at more than $118 billion. It provides a rare quantitative insight into the region’s role in Eurasian supply chains.

The dataset covers reserves, production, processing, and export destinations for more than 100 raw materials, including minerals, hydrocarbons, industrial materials, chemicals, and agricultural products in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

The data highlights, above all, Kazakhstan’s dominant position. Kazakh oil alone accounts for 40 percent of all exports recorded in the dataset, making it the largest single commodity item. Turkmen gas follows in second place with 9.2 percent, followed by Uzbek gold with 8.3 percent, Kazakh gold with 7.7 percent, and Kyrgyz gold with 5.3 percent.

Overall, hydrocarbons account for slightly more than half of all recorded exports. Their value is estimated at around 61 billion U.S. dollars per year. Critical minerals account for an additional 15.7 billion U.S. dollars, of which around 14 billion come from Kazakhstan.

Among these critical raw materials, Kazakh copper and uranium play a particularly prominent role. According to the dataset, copper exports amount to approximately 7.3 billion US dollars annually, while uranium exports total 4.2 billion.

Trade flows are more diverse than is often assumed

The distribution of export destinations also paints a more nuanced picture than is often assumed. The European Union is the largest bloc of buyers, accounting for 29.1 percent of total recorded exports. While China is the largest single importer, it accounts for only about a quarter of total exports.

The United Kingdom and Switzerland each account for about 10 percent of imports, with the trade in precious metals playing a particularly important role here. Russia directly accounts for only 1.2 percent of the exports recorded in the dataset—significantly less than the EU, China, or major Western trading hubs.

The picture is different when it comes to critical minerals. Here, China accounts for nearly half of Central Asia’s exports, and Russia for about a quarter. The European Union accounts for 6.4 percent, and the United States for 2.1 percent.

It is precisely this distribution that explains why Western interest in Central Asia has grown in recent years. It is not just about transit routes, but also about access to strategically important raw materials.

A particularly striking example is Tajikistan. According to the Oxus Society, the country accounts for around 20 percent of global antimony production. Antimony is important for the defense industry, electronics, and other industrial applications. Tajikistan exports this raw material primarily to France and Belgium, with another portion going to Turkey.

Furthermore, according to the data set, the country holds 12 percent of the world’s antimony reserves, 11.2 percent of manganese reserves, and 7.6 percent of lead reserves. Nevertheless, with raw material exports valued at just 1.16 billion U.S. dollars, Tajikistan remains the region’s smallest exporter.

The Middle Corridor is thus far more than a logistical project. It represents a potential realignment of trade routes between Europe and Asia—and, at the same time, an attempt to integrate Central Asia more closely into global supply and raw material chains.