Ruble Forecasts: Short-Term Appreciation, Long-Term Depreciation

In the first quarter of 2026, the Russian foreign exchange market experienced one of its most volatile periods since 2022. Despite rising prices for Russian oil, the ruble depreciated in March to 86.9 rubles per U.S. dollar and around 100 rubles per euro. It was not until early April that a countertrend emerged and the ruble began to appreciate: 76 rubles per U.S. dollar and just under 90 rubles per euro. Over the next one to two months, the ruble is likely to continue appreciating, as budget revenues reflect oil prices only with a delay. Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sberbank, estimates the lag between oil prices and foreign exchange earnings at about one and a half months.

Urals at 13-Year High: Ruble Lags Behind

Two factors are driving the appreciation. The price of the Russian Urals crude rose in April to as high as $116.05 per barrel—nearly double the budgeted price of $59 and a 13-year high. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance has suspended its foreign exchange operations until July 1, 2026, in accordance with the budget rule, to prepare for planned adjustments. The result: Surplus oil and gas revenues are no longer deposited in the National Welfare Fund but remain within the Russian economy.

From March Low to April High

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attributed the ruble’s weakness in March in part to the time lag between oil prices and foreign exchange receipts: “In March, we are seeing the consequences of the relatively low oil price in January. The volatility of the Russian currency is due to a combination of the low oil price in January and February and the suspension of the fiscal rule, under which the Ministry of Finance bought or sold foreign exchange.”

Alexander Golovtsov, head of the analysis department at Russia’s Promsvyazbank, estimates the additional foreign exchange supply: “Without interventions by the Ministry of Finance, an increase in supply of 5 to 10 billion U.S. dollars per month could strongly support the ruble exchange rate. A short-term appreciation to 70 rubles per dollar cannot be ruled out.” Natalya Vashcheliuk, senior analyst at Pervaya, one of Russia’s largest asset management firms, expects the euro to trade within a range of 82.5 to 88.5 rubles per euro in the coming weeks.

On March 20, the Russian Central Bank cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 15%; the consensus among analysts surveyed by the daily newspaper Izvestia expects a further cut to 14.5% at the next meeting on April 24.

Devaluation in the Second Half of the Year

At 4.576 trillion rubles (41 billion euros) after the first quarter, the budget deficit has already exceeded the legally mandated annual target of 3.786 trillion rubles (33 billion euros) by 21%. Sofia Donez, chief economist at T-Investments, considers a dollar exchange rate of 94.5 RUB at year-end likely: “A devaluation of the ruble in 2026 is likely and economically justified,” she says.

Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank, explains: “Overall, I expect the ruble to stabilize in the range of 80 to 85 rubles per dollar by year-end.”

Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned at the Stock Exchange Forum in mid-April that the ruble would “remain stronger than many would like for several years.” Oleg Vyugin, former deputy head of the Central Bank, openly addressed the tension between the ministries: “There is one—albeit rather conspiracy-theory-like—scenario according to which the government is essentially betting on weakening the ruble. In that case, budget revenues could be replenished through the ruble’s devaluation.”

Elena Koschuchowa of the investment firm Weles Kapital cites two possible triggers for an upcoming weakening of the ruble: a substantial correction in oil prices or a clearly more dovish tone from the Central Bank. The latter becomes more likely if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes by the time of the Central Bank’s meeting on June 19, the expert said in an interview with the financial magazine RBC.

Daria Tarasenko, senior analyst at Gazprombank’s Center for Economic Forecasting, summarized the timeline: “The decline in export prices will impact the foreign exchange market in 2026. In the first half of 2026, this effect may be offset by high real interest rates and foreign exchange sales by regulators, while in the second half of the year, their impact on exchange rate dynamics will increase.” Mikhail Selzer, an analyst at the brokerage firm BKS Mir Investitsii, expects an exchange rate “close to 100 rubles per euro” by the end of 2026.