Eastern Europe's demographic crisis is worsening

The Eastern European member states of the European Union are facing increasing pressure from shrinking and aging populations. New data from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, show that demographic challenges are intensifying due to population decline, low birth rates, and ongoing emigration.

While the EU’s total population rose slightly to 451 million people as of January 1, 2025—about one million more than the previous year—many Eastern European countries continued to experience significant population losses.

Over the period from 2005 to 2025, the EU’s total population grew by 4%. However, eight member states experienced population declines, primarily in Central and Eastern Europe.

According to Eurostat, Latvia (-17%), Bulgaria (-16%), Lithuania (-14%), Romania (-11%), and Croatia (-10%) recorded the sharpest relative declines.

In absolute terms, Romania and Poland each lost around two million inhabitants over the course of 20 years, while Bulgaria’s population shrank by about one million people.

This trend highlights the long-term consequences of emigration, low birth rates, and an aging population in Eastern Europe. At the same time, many Western European countries are increasingly relying on immigration to sustain their population growth.

Aging societies strain labor markets

Poland, once one of Europe’s youngest societies, is now aging particularly rapidly. The share of the population aged 65 and older there rose by eight percentage points between 2005 and 2025—the highest increase within the EU.

As of January 1, 2025, a total of 99 million people aged 65 or older lived in the European Union. Their share of the total population was thus 22%.

In many Eastern European countries, aging is accelerating further as younger workers often migrate to economically stronger EU countries. The share of people aged 80 and older increased particularly sharply in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Croatia.

Birth rates remain significantly too low

At the same time, birth rates continue to decline. In 2024, the average fertility rate in the EU stood at just 1.34 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children.

Although Bulgaria recorded the highest birth rate in the EU at 1.72 children per woman, many Eastern European countries still exhibit negative natural population growth, as the number of deaths significantly exceeds the number of births.

Eurostat recorded the sharpest negative growth rates in Latvia (-7.4), Bulgaria (-7.3), and Lithuania (-6.4) per 1,000 inhabitants.

At the same time, mortality rates in Eastern Europe remain high. Bulgaria recorded the highest rate in the EU at 15.6 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants, followed by Latvia (14.3) and Hungary (13.4).

Life expectancy rises, but disparities remain

Life expectancy has improved significantly since many Eastern European countries joined the EU. Nevertheless, considerable differences remain compared to Western Europe.

In 2024, average life expectancy in the EU stood at 81.5 years. The lowest figures were recorded in Bulgaria (75.8 years), Latvia (76.4 years), and Romania (76.5 years).

The Baltic states, however, made the most progress. In Estonia, life expectancy rose by seven years over a 20-year period, and in Latvia and Lithuania by about 5.5 years each.

The significant gap between men and women also remains striking. Latvia has the widest gap within the EU: women there live to an average of 81.2 years, while men live to only 71.4 years—a difference of 9.8 years.

Migration is Gaining Importance

Migration is playing an increasingly important role in population trends in Eastern Europe. While Germany and Spain continue to receive the most immigrants, several Eastern European countries are also increasingly relying on immigration to offset labor shortages and population decline.

In 2024, nearly six million people immigrated to EU countries. About 74% came from countries outside the European Union.

The Czech Republic recorded one of the highest shares of foreign immigrants within the EU. There, 98% of immigrants did not hold Czech citizenship. This was followed by Cyprus (94%) and Austria, Germany, Malta, and Luxembourg, each with 93%.

The trend was different in Romania, Latvia, and Slovakia. There, the majority of immigrants consisted of returning citizens. In Romania, 64% of immigrants were Romanian citizens, in Latvia 61%, and in Slovakia 53%.

However, this return migration has not yet been able to offset the long-term population decline.

Demographic challenges remain

The proportion of young people is now declining in all EU member states. Over the past 20 years, the share of people under 19 has decreased in every EU country.

Many countries in Central and Eastern Europe therefore face a dual challenge: shrinking younger generations and, at the same time, rapidly growing older age groups. This increases the pressure on pension systems, healthcare, and labor markets.

Social trends are also shifting. In 2024, Latvia recorded the highest marriage rate in the EU at 5.5 marriages per 1,000 inhabitants, followed by Romania at 5.3. At the same time, the Baltic states remain among the countries with the highest divorce rates in Europe.

Differences are also evident when it comes to starting a family. The youngest first-time mothers live in Bulgaria (26.9 years), Romania (27.2 years), and Slovakia (27.4 years), while women in Southern Europe have children significantly later.

Despite economic convergence with Western Europe, the demographic outlook for large parts of Eastern Europe remains challenging. Low birth rates, ongoing emigration, and an aging population are likely to weigh on long-term growth prospects, public finances, and the availability of labor.

Governments in Central and Eastern Europe are therefore attempting to counteract these trends with family support programs, tax incentives, and return initiatives. Countries such as Hungary and Poland have introduced extensive measures to increase the birth rate in recent years, but so far with limited success.

At the same time, many countries are increasingly recruiting workers from third countries, particularly from Ukraine and various Asian nations.

Eurostat data thus clearly show that migration is increasingly becoming a key economic and political factor in Eastern Europe as well. By early 2025, nearly 10% of the European Union’s population held the nationality of another country.