Doubts About Russia's Growth: Consumer Spending Is Slowing

Consumer spending growth in Russia is slowing. The Ministry of Economic Development’s “consumer activity” indicator rose 2.9% in August compared with the same month last year, down from 6% in June. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov calls consumer demand the “backbone” of Russia’s economic growth.

Consumer spending growth has halved since June

The consumer activity indicator summarizes real sales in retail, services, and the restaurant industry. The Ministry of Economic Development calculates it based on data from the statistics agency Rosstat. In July, the increase was still 4.6%. From January through August, it stood at 4.5%. According to the ministry’s forecast, private consumption is expected to rise by 4.1% for the year as a whole.

In September, however, private consumption continued to weaken. This is shown by data from the SberIndex of Russia’s Sberbank. The data service of the country’s largest bank analyzes its customers’ card payments and provides consumption data on a weekly basis. According to this data, real consumer spending from September 21 to 27 was only 1.2% higher than the previous year’s figure. In the previous week, it was 1.4%, and in August, it was still 5.7%.

Raiffeisenbank: Broad-Based Decline in Consumption

Stanislaw Muraschow, chief economist at Russia’s Raiffeisenbank, also sees consumer spending on the decline. Seasonally adjusted sales in the food retail sector fell by 0.9% in August compared to the previous month. They had been growing every month since February. Muraschow does not limit the decline to food: “The non-food sector contracted for the second month in a row. This time, the trend is not driven by auto sales, but by other goods—in particular, clothing and shoes, electronics, household goods, and pharmaceuticals,” he writes.

Rising wages continue to support consumer spending. According to Rosstat, real wages rose by 3.3% in July compared with the same month a year earlier, following a 3.4% increase in June. In the first seven months, they were 6% higher in real terms than the previous year’s level and 12.2% higher in nominal terms. However, the pace is slowing: In the first quarter, real wages had risen by 8.7%, and in the second quarter by 4.4%, writes the Moscow business newspaper Kommersant.

Retail is also losing momentum. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, wholesale sales fell by 0.5% year-over-year in August—the first decline since the first quarter. In July, they had still risen by 0.4%. In the retail sector, growth slowed from 5.3% in July to 3.3% in August.

Government and Central Bank Remain Confident

Reshetnikov spoke of the “backbone” of growth on September 24 during the presentation of the government’s economic forecast through 2029. According to the forecast, retail sales are expected to rise by 4.6% in real terms this year, and real wages by 4%.

The economy as a whole is growing much more slowly. According to the ministry, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.8% year-over-year in August, following a 0.6% increase in July. From January through August, the increase was 0.6%. The government expects this figure to hold for the full year as well.

The data from the summer casts doubt on the government’s consumption forecast. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak pointed out risks to the economy last week. He spoke before the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament. Novak cited weaker global growth, the regionalization of world trade, and further sanctions as external risks. Domestically, he sees an unexpectedly long period of restrictive monetary policy and a labor shortage.

Alexei Sabotkin, deputy chairman of the Russian Central Bank, struck a more confident note. On October 1, speaking on the sidelines of an event hosted by the country’s largest private bank, Alfa-Bank, he said that most sectors would have passed their lowest point by the end of 2025 or early 2026. For this year, he expects “moderate but positive” growth figures. In his assessment, the economy will return to its long-term growth trend starting in 2027, provided no further major shocks occur. Sabotkin estimates this trend at around 2% per year, which is the average for the past 10 to 15 years. For faster growth, he says, labor productivity must rise above all else.

Sources: Reuters (EN), Ostwirtschaft (DE), Kommersant, Finmarket, Interfax, Raiffeisenbank, Finam 1, 2 (all RU)

Source: German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Trade, Doubts About Russia’s Growth: Consumer Spending Weakens, October 8, 2026.

This article was prepared for the German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Trade.