72,000 metric tons instead of 4,400: Russia's diesel is flowing to Kyrgyzstan again
Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”
Russia delivered 72,000 metric tons of diesel to Kyrgyzstan in August—more than 16 times the amount from the previous month. Only 4,400 metric tons had arrived in July. Tajikistan also received significantly more fuel again—56,000 metric tons—up from 16,000 metric tons in July. However, on September 20, a drone attack shut down the Gazprom Neft refinery in Moscow, one of Russia’s largest diesel producers.
Deliveries Recover After July’s Slump
The figures come from the regional news portal The Times of Central Asia. According to the report, Russia delivered a total of 370,000 metric tons of diesel to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia in August. Mongolia was the largest recipient with 215,000 metric tons, while Kazakhstan received 28,000 metric tons. From January through August, Russia’s deliveries to Central Asia and Afghanistan totaled 2.5 million metric tons. That is 100,000 metric tons less than in the same period last year, a decline of about 4%. In August, Russian refineries were once again producing about 170,000 metric tons of diesel per day.
The slump over the summer hit both countries hard. Ukrainian drones crippled several Russian refineries, and Moscow restricted exports. On August 11, an attack struck the refinery in Orsk, southern Russia. Repairs could take up to six months. In Tajikistan, gas stations rationed sales to 20 liters per customer in early July. By the end of July, the price of diesel had risen to 17 to 18 somoni per liter, equivalent to about $1.90. In early June, a liter had still cost about 11 somoni. By the end of August, the price had fallen to 16.5 somoni. In Bishkek, the price of AI-92 gasoline rose from 78.4 to 87.9 som per liter between May and mid-August. This corresponded to an increase from 0.90 to about 1 U.S. dollar.
Bishkek Subsidizes Imports and Negotiates with China
The Kyrgyz government is propping up the market with taxpayer money. At the end of August, the Cabinet of Ministers extended subsidies for fuel importers through the end of the year. Cabinet Chief Adylbek Kasymaliev put the total amount of aid at 956.1 million som, equivalent to about 11.4 million U.S. dollars. At the same time, the government raised the price thresholds at which the subsidies take effect: for AI-92 gasoline, from 860 to 960 U.S. dollars per metric ton; for diesel, from 950 to 1,050 U.S. dollars.
At the same time, Bishkek is seeking new suppliers. “Kyrgyzstan is interested in increasing oil product deliveries from China,” said Erlist Akunbekov, deputy chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, during a meeting with the management of the oil company Sinopec in Urumqi. Kyrgyz companies have already signed supply contracts with the state-owned CNPC, though volumes and prices have not been disclosed. Kazakhstan also pledged to supply 15,000 to 20,000 metric tons of heating oil per month, while Belarus has already been supplying diesel and kerosene. In August, Kyrgyzstan also imported 35,000 metric tons of crude oil via Kazakhstan for domestic processing for the first time. The Junda refinery in Kara-Balta is set to be modernized at a cost of 193.75 million U.S. dollars. Tajikistan is relying on Iran: Dushanbe ordered 2 million metric tons of crude oil, 300,000 metric tons of diesel, 150,000 metric tons of gasoline, and 100,000 metric tons of kerosene from Iran. In the first half of the year, the country imported 599,500 metric tons of petroleum products worth $494.7 million, 91.1% of which came from Russia.
Over 90% from Russia: Dependence Persists
The recovery in August rests on shaky ground. On September 20, the Gazprom Neft refinery in Moscow suspended operations following a drone attack. The facility processes 11.6 million metric tons of crude oil per year and produces approximately 3.2 million metric tons of diesel. According to The Times of Central Asia, repairs are expected to take several weeks. Russia’s export ban on diesel remains in effect, though intergovernmental agreements exempt Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan from it. It is precisely this arrangement that makes both countries vulnerable: if Russian refining capacity is lost, they will be the first to face the shortage.
For Bishkek, this is about more than just gas station prices. Over 90% of imported fuel comes from Russia. Diesel powers trucks, construction sites, and agriculture. Demand is growing: According to the Kazakh news agency Kazinform, Kyrgyzstan’s economy grew by 11.9% in the first half of the year, driven by construction and industry.
Alternatives remain limited. There is no rail connection to China, so fuel from Xinjiang must be transported by truck over mountain passes. Supplies from Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan have so far filled only niche markets. With winter approaching and heating demand on the rise, the situation remains tense. If fuel prices rise again, it will drive up inflation and increase the cost of transportation and agriculture in both economies.
Source: The Times of Central Asia (diesel deliveries), The Times of Central Asia (subsidies), The Times of Central Asia (China), Kazinform (all EN)