Poland's Inflation Jumps to 4.0%: Fuel Prices Rise 36.1%

Poland's consumer prices in September were 4.0% higher than in the same month a year ago. In August, the rate was 3.4%. This was reported by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) in its preliminary estimate. Compared to the previous month, prices rose by 0.7%. Analysts had expected an average of 4.1%.

Fuel is driving inflation

Fuel for private vehicles cost 36.1% more than a year ago. On a month-over-month basis, the increase was 9.2%. According to calculations by the Notes from Poland portal, fuel accounts for about half of the increase.

Energy sources such as electricity and gas rose in price by 4.9%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, on the other hand, became 0.5% cheaper. The pressure is therefore coming from a specific product group, not across the board.

Analysts at Erste Bank are warning about the harvest. The grain harvest is expected to be 5% lower. This will “drive the price index upward in the coming months,” they write.

Central Bank Holds Steady, Industry Grows

On October 7, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Its target is 2.5%, with a tolerance of 1 percentage point above and below that level. Inflation is thus above the upper limit of 3.5%.

NBP President Adam Glapiński does not expect an interest rate hike in November. He did not rule it out, however, should new data and the updated projection justify it. So far, he sees no evidence that fuel costs are spilling over into other prices. Temporary tax cuts on fuel may be pushing down the October figure. Their expiration in 2027 could create new upward pressure.

Ahead of the meeting, ING economists wrote: “The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) could adopt a wait-and-see approach and leave interest rates unchanged in October.” The bank expects the first rate hike in early 2027, following nine cuts between September 2023 and March 2026.

Manufacturing is supporting the economy. GUS reported a 4.3% increase in production for August, following a 0.7% increase in August 2025. Electrical engineering rose by 18.7%, and mechanical engineering by 12.8%. Motor vehicle production fell by 1.5%.

Production is also growing year-to-date: From January through August, it rose by 3.5%, up from 2.0% in the same period last year. Manufacturers of durable consumer goods, however, saw a 7.0% decline. Analysts at mBank expect industrial output to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by capital goods and defense contracts.

For German exporters, Poland remains a market with a growing industrial sector. This is likely to support demand for intermediate goods and equipment. However, prices are rising, and interest rates could increase in 2027. Anyone taking out loans in Poland or invoicing in złoty should review their costs and credit lines now.

Sources: GUS (PL/EN), NBP (PL/EN), Notes from Poland (EN), ING (EN), Erste Group (EN)

SK, Frankfurt