7.3% instead of 6.0%: IMF Significantly Raises Growth Forecast for Tajikistan
Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”
The International Monetary Fund now forecasts 7.3% growth for Tajikistan in 2026, 1.3 percentage points higher than in April. For 2027, the Fund has even raised its estimate from 4.8% to 6.8%. This is based on the World Economic Outlook released on October 13 at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The Tajik news portal Asia-Plus analyzed the figures on October 15: No other economy in Central Asia received a comparable upward revision in this round of forecasts.
World Bank, EBRD, and EFSD Raise Forecasts in Parallel
In its October update on the Europe and Central Asia region, the World Bank projects 7.5% growth for Tajikistan, up from 6.5% in the spring. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts 7.9%, while the Eurasian Stabilization Fund (EFSD) projects 7.8%. The Asian Development Bank’s forecast of 7.0% is at the lower end of the range. The government in Dushanbe is already planning for 8.5%.
Current economic conditions support the optimists. According to official figures, the economy grew by 8.2% in the first half of 2026, following 8.4% growth for the full year of 2025. According to the EBRD, fixed investment rose by 35.9% year-over-year in the first half of the year, while exports increased by 57.2%. Only the UN trade organization UNCTAD breaks from this trend. Its report dated October 9 projects Tajikistan’s growth at 6.6% for 2026, trailing Kyrgyzstan at 8.8% and Uzbekistan at 7.9%.
In the World Bank’s regional comparison, Tajikistan thus remains among the leaders: Kyrgyzstan leads in 2026 with 9.6%, followed by Uzbekistan at 7.9%, and Kazakhstan at 4.6%. Central Asia as a whole is projected to grow by 5.8% and remains the fastest-growing subregion between Warsaw and Bishkek.
The contrast with the rest of the world is striking. For emerging and developing economies as a whole, the IMF expects growth to slow to 3.7% in 2026, down from 4.5% the previous year. Central Asia is thus growing more than twice as fast as the comparison group. Tajikistan itself has not posted a growth rate below 8% in any year since 2023.
Remittances from Russia and the Rogun hydroelectric project are driving the boom
For 2027 and 2028, the World Bank raised its forecasts for Central Asia by an average of 0.6 percentage points. It cites robust consumer spending and high government investment in transportation and energy. In Tajikistan, the Rogun hydroelectric power plant is another key factor: in early October, Dushanbe secured a second World Bank tranche of $300 million for the project.
Consumption depends on migrant workers. According to the IMF, remittances reached 48% of economic output in 2024. According to the World Bank, more than 90% of these inflows come from Russia—a record high in the region. By comparison, in Uzbekistan, about 70% of remittances come from Russia, reaching a record $9.2 billion in the first half of the year. The rating agency S&P recognized this positive trend and upgraded Tajikistan’s rating in August, at the same time as Kazakhstan. The World Bank describes public debt in Central Asia as moderate and stable. This sets the region apart from Central Europe, where debt-to-GDP ratios have been rising since the pandemic and already exceed 65% of GDP in Poland.
Domestic demand is also strong. According to the World Bank, real wages in Central Asia rose more than twice as fast as the average for the entire Europe and Central Asia region. In Tajikistan, consumer loans are also driving credit growth, while mortgages are stalling due to financing and collateral requirements. Both factors support private consumption but make it sensitive to interest rate changes.
The global outlook, however, remains fragile. Worldwide, the IMF expects growth of only 3.1% for 2026. “The outlook is highly mixed,” said IMF Research Director Silvana Tenreyro, according to the U.S. business magazine Fortune, during the report’s presentation in Bangkok.
Starting in 2027, all institutions expect a slowdown
The institutions are in agreement on the direction starting in 2027: downward. The World Bank projects Tajikistan’s growth at 6.2% then, and 5.6% in 2028. The IMF expects 6.8%, the EBRD 7.0%, and the EFSD 6.7%. The reason is the same across the board: the country’s dependence on remittances makes it vulnerable. If economic growth slows in the host countries of migrants, remittance inflows decline. The EFSD expects remittances to return to normal. The ADB attributed its more cautious forecast to the escalation of the war in Ukraine and fuel supply bottlenecks.
Prices remain stable for now. The IMF expects inflation of 4.1% this year and 4.8% next year. It remains to be seen how resilient the 57% export boom is: it relies heavily on precious metals at high world market prices. If the price of gold plummets or transfers from Russia stall, the World Bank’s economic slowdown scenario will take hold sooner than planned. Until then, Dushanbe is experiencing its best forecast round in years, financed by migrants, metals, and multilateral loans.
Source: Asia-Plus, World Bank ECA Economic Update, Asia-Plus on UNCTAD, Fortune (all in English)