Kazakhstan Projects 5.3% Growth: The 2027 Budget Calls for 30.2 Trillion Tenge in Spending
5.3% growth in 2027, 5.5% in 2028, 5.4% in 2029: These are the targets set by the Kazakh government in its new economic forecast. On August 25 in Astana, the Cabinet approved the outlook for 2027 through 2029 and the draft national budget. Nominal GDP is expected to rise from 199.3 trillion tenge in 2027 to 245 trillion tenge in 2029, an increase of nearly 23%.
Growth is expected to be driven by sectors outside the oil industry. The manufacturing sector is projected to grow by 5.9% annually, while mining is expected to grow by only 2%. The government is focusing on metallurgy, mechanical engineering, building materials, chemicals, and food. Construction is projected to grow by 16% in 2027 and 17.3% in 2029. According to the forecast, trade will increase by 5.7% per year, information and communication by 9.2%, and transportation and warehousing by 10.4%. The transportation forecast is driven by the expansion of the Middle Corridor: The volume of freight passing through Kazakhstan rose from 0.8 million to 4.5 million metric tons within seven years, while transit times fell from around 30 days to 13 to 17 days.
Budget deficit expected to fall to 0.4%
Finance Minister Madi Takijev is projecting revenues of 25.6 trillion tenge for 2027, equivalent to 12.9% of GDP. Expenditures are set to rise to 30.2 trillion tenge. The deficit thus stands at 2.3% of GDP and is expected to fall to 0.4% by 2029. Excluding oil revenues, the deficit remains larger: the non-oil deficit falls from 5.3% to 2.5%. The National Fund will contribute approximately 4.4 trillion tenge in 2027, equivalent to about 9.6 billion U.S. dollars. Its foreign assets are nevertheless expected to grow from 65.2 billion U.S. dollars to 70.6 billion U.S. dollars.
Prime Minister Olshas Bektenov urges discipline. “It is crucial to use budget funds as efficiently and on time as possible, to prevent any increase in current expenditures, and to strictly control spending,” he said, according to the state-run agency Qazinform.
S&P Forecasts Lower Growth
The rating agency S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kazakhstan to BBB in August. However, it expects annual growth of only 4% to 4.5% for 2027 through 2029. In the first half of 2026, the economy grew by 4.1% according to government figures, even though oil production fell by 8.4%. Inflation is expected to range between 7.5% and 9.5% in 2027 and then drop to 6% to 8%.
The plan opens doors for German suppliers. Kazakhstan is investing in transportation, energy, water, and housing construction. German machinery manufacturers, construction equipment makers, and logistics providers are facing rising demand: Imports are projected to climb from $80.5 billion in 2027 to $88.4 billion in 2029. Foreign trade will remain slightly in the black: Exports are expected to rise from $82.8 billion to $88.5 billion, causing the trade surplus to shrink to nearly zero. Suppliers will primarily compete with providers from China and Russia.
Sources: Government of Kazakhstan (RU/EN), Qazinform (EN), S&P Global Ratings (EN)
SK, Frankfurt