Armenia's exports fall by 7.9%: Russia bans fruit, fish, and dairy products

From January through July, Armenia exported goods worth 4,035.7 million U.S. dollars, 7.9% less than a year earlier. The Armenian Statistical Committee reported this on August 25. In July alone, exports fell by 15.7% compared with the same month a year earlier.

Imports followed the opposite trend. They rose by 7.7% to 7,502.5 million U.S. dollars, and by 21.5% in July. Total foreign trade reached 11,538.2 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.7%. In local currency, this amounts to 4,304.4 billion drams. The trade deficit in goods thus grew to approximately 3.5 billion U.S. dollars.

Moscow Bans One Product After Another

Since the end of May, Russia has been restricting imports of Armenian products, citing phytosanitary regulations. The list has expanded to include everything from flowers, mineral water, beverages, and spirits to vegetables, fruits, berries, grapes, potatoes, and dried fruits, as well as live fish and seafood. Since July 27, the bans have also applied to dairy products. Moscow is also prohibiting the transit of Armenian goods through Russia to other countries in the Eurasian Economic Union.

In a report dated August 24, S&P Global Ratings estimates the damage at approximately 2% of economic output. Russia imports between 80% and 98% of the banned products. “Since agricultural shipments coincide with the summer and fall harvest seasons, we expect this effect to intensify in the second half of 2026, putting downward pressure on agricultural production, rural incomes, and export revenues,” the report states.

Vazgen Poghosyan, head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Central Bank of Armenia, cited a narrower range on August 10. He estimated the impact of the Russian measures at 1 to 1.5% of economic output.

The domestic economy is still contributing

The economic activity index rose by 7.7% from January through July. Industry grew by 9.5%, and construction by 25%. Services (excluding trade) grew by 13.2%. Domestic trade, by contrast, grew by only 0.8%. S&P expects the current account deficit to fall to 8.0% of GDP in 2026, down from 8.7% in 2025. The number of travelers rose by nearly 15% in the first half of the year.

For German suppliers, the import side is what counts. Armenia is importing 7.7% more, and in July, imports rose by as much as 21.5%. Companies selling refrigeration technology, sorting and packaging systems, or equipment for dairies are finding customers who need to restructure their operations. Exporters are scrutinizing their supply chains more closely: the suspension of transit through Russia is lengthening delivery routes and shifting volumes to Georgia and Iran. For investors, the picture remains mixed. Construction and services are seeing double-digit growth, while agricultural exports are losing their largest customer.

Sources: Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (EN), S&P Global Ratings (EN), Central Bank of Armenia (EN), ARKA (EN)

SK, Frankfurt