According to the central bank, inflation remains stable

According to the latest forecast from the National Bank of Poland (NBP), inflation in Poland is expected to remain within the target range through the end of 2028. NBP Governor Adam Glapiński made this statement on March 5 during the presentation of the latest projections.

The central bank expects the annual inflation rate to fall to between 1.6 and 2.9 percent in 2026. In the previous forecast from November 2025, the range was still between 1.9 and 4 percent. For 2027, the NBP expects an inflation rate between 1.1 and 3.7 percent. This is slightly narrower than the earlier forecast of 1.1 to 4.1 percent. For 2028, the central bank anticipates an inflation rate between 0.9 and 4 percent.

The median of these estimates remains within the NBP’s target range. The Polish central bank aims for an inflation rate of 2.5 percent and allows a deviation of one percentage point in either direction.

Geopolitical risks remain

Glapiński pointed out that geopolitical developments could only be taken into account to a limited extent in the current forecasts. “The forecast does not account for the consequences of an escalation in the Middle East or the impact of an attack on Iran. Aside from potentially higher fuel prices, it is currently difficult to assess what economic consequences might result,” said the central bank governor.

The outlook for core inflation has also improved, Glapiński explained. The central bank considers this metric an important indicator of underlying price pressures. According to the NBP’s assessment, core inflation is expected to remain close to its long-term average of about 2.5 percent throughout the forecast period.

Further interest rate cut decided

The central bank governor’s remarks followed the NBP’s latest monetary policy decision. On March 4, the National Bank’s Monetary Policy Council cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent.

The central bank thus continued its easing cycle. This followed a two-month pause after five consecutive rate cuts between July and December.

In 2025, the NBP cut interest rates a total of six times by a combined 175 basis points as inflation approached the central bank’s target range.

According to the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.2 percent in January. This was 0.2 percentage points lower than in December.

This article was produced in cooperation with our partner bne intelliNews